Predicting The Seats: East Midlands

 

General election 2015

We begin this series with a look at the East Midlands region. As it stands, the Conservatives hold 30 of the 46 seats within the region, whilst Labour hold the remaining 16. Labour hope to make serious gains in this region, building on their 16 seats and perhaps becoming the largest party in the region. The Tories will likely hang on to many seats, but may make gains in certain areas if possible. What about UKIP? One or two seats seem plausible to win, but do they have enough momentum?

Let’s Predict.

Amber Valley: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Nigel Mills MP

Nigel Mills took this seat by 1.2%. Not an easy win for sure. Opinion polls in the area however show that Amber Valley could go back to Labour, with one poll showing a 12% lead to Labour, but another only indicating a 1% lead. Regardless, it seems that Labour will likely take this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Kevin Gillott

Ashfield: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gloria Del Piero MP

A Labour hold since 1979. Regardless of the state The Labour party is in, its likely Labour will hold the seat for the time being.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Gloria Del Piero MP (Shadow Minister For Women & Equality)

Bassetlaw: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Mann MP

Another solid Labour hold, all the way back since 1935. I see no surprises here.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – John Mann MP

Bolsover: 2010 – Labour Hold – Dennis Skinner MP

Are you kidding? Its Dennis Skinner.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Dennis Skinner MP

Boston & Skegness: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Simmonds MP

Simmonds stands down this election, in what is one of the most contested seats of the region, if not the entire country. UKIP throws in its youngest candidate in the form of Robin Hunter Clarke, with a lot of speculation that this seat could be a surprise win for the Eurosceptic party. An early opinion poll saw UKIP lead with 45%, but a recent one has put the Tories in front at 38%. Likely due to the age of Robin Hunter Clarke playing a factor in what is an important job in politics, which could easily be badly managed. While hard to call, I’ll go safe and predict a Tory hold. But you never know…

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Matt Warman

Bosworth: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Tredinnick MP

The Tories have held this seat since 1970, with only 2 MPs holding the seat in a 45 year reign. Doubt we’ll see any shocks here.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Tredinnick MP

Broxtowe: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Anna Soubry MP

Another swing seat, which changed hands in the last election following the collapse of Labour. Anna Soubry sits here, and has had her fair share of exposure over the last five years. Former MP Nick Palmer tries his luck at getting the seat back, and based on opinion polls, he stands a good chance at reclaiming his old seat. I’ll go with polls and call a Labour Gain here.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Nick Palmer

Charnwood: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Stephen Dorrell MP

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception in 97. Dorrell however stands down after 18 years of service, making way for his successor Ed Argar to take the seat comfortably, without any major surprises.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Ed Argar

Chesterfield: 2010 – Labour Gain – Toby Perkins

Labour took this seat in 2010 from the Liberal Democrats. Given the state the Liberal Democrats are in right now, the likely outcome would see a good chunk of the votes head towards the Labour vote, therefore making this Labour seat much more comfortable in the future.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Toby Perkins MP (Shadow Minister For Business)

Corby: 2012BE – Labour Gain – Andy Sawford

The notorious by election in 2012 saw Louise Mensch stand down from the seat, and allow Labour to take the seat with Andy Sawford. UKIP MEP Margot Parker will attempt to take this seat, but opinion polls say Labour will hold the seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Andy Sawford MP

Daventry: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Chris Heaton-Harris MP

Not once has this seat changed parties. Not once.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Chris Heaton-Harris MP

Derby North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Williamson

Held since 1997, its likely that Labour will keep this seat red for the time being.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Williamson MP

Derby South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Margaret Beckett MP

Same situation as Derby North, only this seat has never switched parties.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Margaret Beckett MP

Derbyshire Dales: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Patrick McLoughlin MP

A new seat made in the last election, it doesn’t have much to bargain with. With what data is available, its likely the Tories will hold this seat, and McLoughlin will return to Parliament for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Patrick McLoughlin MP (Secretary Of State For Transport)

Mid-Derbyshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Pauline Latham

Recreated since being abolished at the end of WW1, The Tories held the seat from the previous incarnation. With a huge majority, its likely the Tories will hold the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Pauline Latham MP

North East Derbyshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Natascha Engel MP

Not since 1935 has this seat changed hands, and Labour have held the seat ever since. Despite the narrow majority between the two main parties, I still see Labour pulling the win here.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Natascha Engel MP (Chair Of The Backbench Select Committee)

South Derbyshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Heather Wheeler

A gain from the Tories in the last election after 13 years of Labour. No polls are available to see whether this seat will change hands, but the size of the majority might hold off Labour for another election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Heather Wheeler MP

Erewash: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jessica Lee

A narrow seat this one, with the Tories gaining in the last election. This is a tough one to call, with no poll data to rely on. I’ll gamble and say Labour will regain this.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Catherine Atkinson

Gainsborough: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Edward Leigh MP

A very strong Tory hold since 1983. I can’t see Labour winning this, seeing as they never had.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Edward Leigh MP

Gedling: 2010 – Labour Hold – Vernon Coaker MP

A labour hold since 1997, surviving a Tory takeover in the last election. While Coaker’s majority slimmed last time, I could predict a slight rise, but nothing more.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Vernon Coaker MP

Margaret Thatcher, a proud Eurosceptic

Grantham was home to the Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher

Grantham And Stamford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nicholas Boles

With the Lib Dem vote on the plunge, this seat will turn a Tory hold, into a Tory fortress.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nicholas Boles MP

Harborough: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Edward Garnier MP

A Tory seat since 1950. But unless you take out the brief 1945 turnover, The Tories have had it since 1924. Garnier has been the MP since 1992. Its likely he’ll return for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Edward Garnier MP

High Peak: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Andrew Bingham

The Tories won this seat back in the last election following 13 years of Labour. With a history of Conservative rule, I can see this staying with the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Bingham MP

Kettering: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Phillip Hollobone MP

A tory hold for 10 years after winning the seat back from Labour in 2005. With a majority over 9000, its unlikely Labour will win this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Phillip Hollobone MP

Westminster veteran, Keith Vaz MP

Westminster veteran, Keith Vaz MP

Leicester East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Keith Vaz MP

Keith Vaz has held this seat since 1987, with no sign of losing that seat to The Tories.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Keith Vaz MP

Leicester South: 2011BE – Labour Hold – Jon Ashworth

A huge majority in the By-Election is likely to hold in this election, what with a Lib Dem collapse.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jon Ashworth MP

Leicester West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Liz Kendall

Completing the hatrick for Labour will be Liz Kendall, as Leicester will pass 2015 still a Labour heartland in a muddy Midlands. Perhaps an increase in its majority is probable.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Liz Kendall MP

North West Leicestershire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Andrew Bridgen

Another potential swing seat in this election that could go either way. Lib Dem voters may be key to victory in this seat, and it’ll depend which way they go. With few statistics available, I think this seat will stay Conservative.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Bridgen MP

South Leicestershire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Robathan MP

Even if all the Lib Dem votes went to Labour, it still wouldn’t be enough to take the seat. I sense a Tory return here.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alberto Costa

Lincoln: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Karl McCartney

Another swing seat in this election which is likely to return to Labour according to stats.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Lucy Rigby

Loughborough: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Nicky Morgan

Nicky Morgan received a huge promotion in 2014, becoming the Secretary Of State For Education. Given that promotion, that could be a key factor that could keep her seat for another five years. Here’s hoping.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nicky Morgan MP

Louth & Horncastle: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Peter Tapsell MP

Peter Tapsell stands down at this election, making way for a new MP to come in. It will likely be a Tory, given their huge majority and hold in this area.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Victoria Atkins

Mansfield: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sir Alan Meale MP

A labour seat since 1923. Its likely to stay Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Sir Alan Meale MP

Newark: 2014BE – Conservative Hold – Robert Jenrick

UKIP rose quite big here in the by-election, yet The Tories still held the seat quite comfortably. I cannot see UKIP having better luck in this election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Robert Jenrick MP

Northampton North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Michael Ellis

The Tories gained this seat in 2010, by a majority of under 2000. This is likely to be tight this time around, with Labour fighting hard to win it back. If the party can appeal to dissuaded Lib Dem voters, its likely to win it back.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Sally Keeble

Northampton South: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Brian Binley MP

A Tory seat since 2005 with a comfortable majority, I can’t see Labour winning this back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Mackintosh

South Northamptonshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrea Leadsom MP

Another strong Tory seat, which is likely to get stronger with the Lib Dem vote weakening.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Leadsom MP

Nottingham East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Leslie MP

A 1992 held Labour Seat which is likely to stay Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Leslie MP

Nottingham North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Graham Allen MP

In the last election, Labour had double the vote to the Conservative. I doubt the Tories can muster enough votes to win the seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Graham Allen MP

Nottingham South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Lillian Greenwood

A Labour hold since 1992, Labour are likely to increase their majority after a close race in the last election

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Lillian Greenwood MP

Ken Clarke looks across the river Thames from his Westminster office

Ken Clarke looks across the river Thames from his Westminster office

Rushcliffe: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Kenneth Clarke MP

A legend like Ken Clarke won’t go away so easily. If the Tories lose this election, I would to see Clarke go for the leadership one last time. Unlikely though!

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Kenneth Clarke MP

Rutland And Melton: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Alan Duncan MP

Holding the seat comfortably since 1992, Alan Duncan is likely to return to Parliament once again this election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alan Duncan MP

Sherwood: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mark Spencer

A close swing seat here that The Tories won in the last election. My best bet though is that this will return to Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Leonie Mathers

Sleaford & North Hykeham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Stephen Phillips QC

With the Lib Dem likely to crash in this seat, expect the Tory majority to grow.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Stephen Phillips QC

South Holland & The Deepings: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Hayes MP

A tory hold since the seat’s inception in 1997. Hayes is likely to keep the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Hayes MP

Wellingborough: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Peter Bone MP

The notorious Peter Bone resides here, and has had a wild five years. Expect a further five as he is likely to be re elected.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Peter Bone MP

Overall Seat Prediction:

Conservative – 24 Seats

Labour – 22 Seats

So as seen, it’s very close. Labour just misses overtaking the Tories. This really may say a lot for results to come. Just how neck and neck the main parties will be, and what similar areas will be like come May 7th. What do you think of these predictions? Will it be this close, or even closer?

We will look closely at the South West next!

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

Follow Daily Political View on Twitter: (@DailyPoliticsV)

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One thought on “Predicting The Seats: East Midlands

  1. Pingback: Predicting The Seats: South West | Daily Political View

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