Predicting The Seats: South West

 

downing street

We make our first trip down to the south of England for the second part of my Predicting The Seats series. The Tories lead in this region with 36 seats, a comfortable lead over the Liberal Democrats who hold 15, with Labour only holding 4. Will this region see a huge Lib Dem wipe-out? If so, which party will voters drift to? Conservative? Labour? UKIP?

Lets find out.

Bath: 2010 – Liberal Democrat hold – Don Foster MP

Foster stands down at this election, allowing a new MP into the mix. The Lib Dems hold a huge majority in this seat, and despite new lows in the polls, I can see this being a seat that the party will hold.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Steve Bradley

Tobias Ellwood MP

Tobias Ellwood MP

Bournemouth East: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Tobias Ellwood MP

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception in the February 1974 election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Tobias Ellwood MP (Parliamentary Under Secretary Of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs)

Bournemouth West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Conor Burns MP

Like Bournemouth East it has been a Tory hold throughout the seat’s existence. Burns is likely to hold.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Conor Burns MP

Bridgwater & West Somerset: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Ian Liddell-Grainger

A new seat created in 2010, the Tories managed to hold the seat in the last election, and with a huge majority and decreasing Lib Dem vote, its likely to stay a majority.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Ian Liddell-Grainger MP

Bristol East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Kerry McCarthy MP

One of the four Labour seats held in South West England. If Labour’s polls are to be believed, Kerry McCarthy will likely hang on to her seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Kerry McCarthy MP (Shadow Foreign Office Minister)

Bristol North West: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Charlotte Leslie

Labour lost this seat by a 12.2% swing; a mighty blow one thinks. Getting this seat back will be a huge challenge for Labour, but given how huge the drop of vote was in the last election, its unlikely they will seize this seat back so quickly.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Charlotte Leslie MP

Dame Dawn Primarolo

Farewell Dame Dawn Primarolo

Bristol South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Dame Dawn Primarolo MP

Primarolo steps down in this election in what is another safe seat in the South for Labour. Not changed hands since 1931, Labour will likely hang on to this seat, and add a fresh face in the process.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Karin Smyth

Bristol West: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Stephen Williams MP

This will likely swing towards Labour given the collapse of the Lib Dem vote which is likely to occur on May 7th. Labour will sweep in and take this seat, holding ¾ of the city of Bristol.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Thangam Debbonaire

Camborne & Redruth: 2010 – Conservative Gain – George Eustice

One of the closest seats in the election last time, with only 0.2% of the vote splitting the top two candidates. The tories just prevailed, but according to opinion polls, UKIP will seize this seat with 33%. A wild prediction, there’s no doubt about it, but seeing as there hasn’t been any other opinion poll since, I’m going to go wild and predict UKIP to seize the seat, given the collapse of the Lib Dem vote, and the divide of the right. Why Not?

Predicted Winner – UKIP Gain – Dr. Robert Smith

Cheltenham: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Martin Hopwood MP

A tough one to call. This has been a Lib Dem seat since 1992, but polls have the party at deep lows. Plus, its majority is not a strong one, compared to other Lib Dem seats, so despite what polls say, I doubt the party will hold on to the seat. I’m predicting a surprise gain for the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Alex Chalk

Chippenham: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Duncan Hames MP

Again, another tough seat to call. I’d likely say the same thing I said about Cheltenham, a Tory gain via decreased voter support for the Lib Dems.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Michelle Donelan

Christchurch: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Christopher Chope MP

A solid Tory strong seat which will not change hands anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Christopher Chope MP

North Cornwall: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Dan Rogerson MP

Tough seats just keep coming and coming. Just under a 3000 majority in this seat, it is likely that the Tories would win this seat. But that requires over a 6% swing. It’s tough, but I think given the drop in Lib Dem vote, the Tories might just take this.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Scott Mann

South East Cornwall: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Sheryll Murray MP

Again, the Lib Dem vote will fall further in this election, giving the Tories a bigger majority.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sheryll Murray MP

The Cotswolds: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP

Safe Tory seat, unlikely to change hands.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Geoffrey Clinton-Brown MP

Devizes: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Claire Perry MP

Not since 1924 has the seat changed hands. The Tories have this seat on lockdown.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Claire Perry MP (Parliamentary Under Secretary Of State For Transport)

Central Devon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mel Stride MP

A comfortable majority for the Tories will likely retain this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mel Stride MP

Hugo Swire will hold his Tory stronghold

Hugo Swire will hold his Tory stronghold

East Devon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Hugo Swire MP

Again, another comfortable seat for the Tories. Swire is an established MP in the area and is popular with locals.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Hugo Swire MP (Minister Of State For The Foreign And Commonwealth Office)

North Devon: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Nick Harvey MP

A lot to think about with this seat. Firstly, UKIP did well in the 2010 count which has to make one think how well they will do this time. How many votes will they take off the Tories? What about the Lib Dems? Can local campaigners convince locals to back their man for another five years? Hard to say, but I reckon the majority will be slim, and will go to the Lib Dems…but only just.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Nick Harvey MP

South West Devon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gary Streeter MP

Once again, another Tory hold for this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gary Streeter MP

Torridge & West Devon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Geoffrey Cox MP

A close majority in 2010. UKIP are performing better than Labour, it is sure to make multiple parties nervous this time round. However, I think the Tories can pinch votes off the Lib Dems to keep the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Geoffrey Cox MP

Mid Dorset & North Poole: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Annette Brooke MP

Brooke steps down in this election and will no doubt expect a new Lib Dem candidate to win. But given how close the last result was, and the collapse of Lib Dem support, it is likely the Tory opponent will take the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Michael Tomlinson

North Dorset: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Robert Walter MP

A Tory hold since 1950, I cannot see a shock result here at all.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Simon Hoare

South Dorset: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Richard Drax MP

A Tory gain from Labour back in 2010 after Labour held the seat for nine years. I do not see this seat returning to Labour despite the polls.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Richard Drax MP

West Dorset: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Oliver Letwin MP

A seat that has existed since 1885 and has never changed hands. Letwin has been the MP since 1997 too. A very safe seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Oliver Letwin MP (Minister Of State For Policy/Chancellor Of The Duchy Of Lancaster)

Labour veteran Ben Bradsaw

Labour veteran Ben Bradshaw

Exeter: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ben Bradshaw MP

One of Labour’s holds in the South West, which they will likely hold for another election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ben Bradshaw MP

Filton And Bradley Stoke: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jack Lopresti MP

It’s likely the Tories will hold on to this seat, unless fledging Lib Dem voters go towards Labour and decrease the majority gap. Unlikely though.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jack Lopresti MP

Forest Of Dean: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Harper MP

With an 11,000 majority, its unlikely any other party will take this.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Harper MP (Minister Of State For Disabled People)

Gloucester: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Richard Graham MP

Opinion polls say that this will be a tight seat as Labour try to gain it back. However, The Tories are likely to hang on, but only just.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Richard Graham MP

Kingswood: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Chris Skidmore  MP

The Tories gained this seat back from Labour in the last election and I expect them to hold onto it for another election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Chris Skidmore MP

Newton Abbot: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Anne Marie Morris MP

A very close result in the last election, but given the predicted Lib Dem drop, The Tories will hold onto this.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Anne Marie Morris MP

Plymouth Moor View: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alison Seabeck MP

I expect Labour to remain a tight grip of this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Alison Seaback MP

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Oliver Colvile MP

Opinion polls say that Labour will take back this seat with a high majority.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Luke Pollard

Luke Pollard canvassing in Plymouth (Via Guardian Media)

Luke Pollard canvassing in Plymouth (Via Guardian Media)

Poole: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Robert Syms MP

A strong Tory hold that is likely to remain that way.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Robert Syms MP

St Austell & Newquay: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Stephen Gilbert MP

Opinion polls say that the Tories will take the seat following a drop in the Lib Dem vote. UKIP will see their vote increase.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Steve Double

St Ives: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Andrew George MP

A Lib Dem drop in this seat will likely see Tory candidate Derek Thomas finally get this seat, after failing in 2010.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Derek Thomas

Salisbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Glen MP

A huge majority in this seat by the Tories is likely to hold with the lib dem drop in this region.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Glen MP (Parliamentary Private Secretary to Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government)

North Somerset: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Liam Fox MP

Fox may have had a bad time in cabinet, but it is likely he will keep his seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Liam Fox MP

Jacob Rees-Mogg and his son pictured canvassing against 2014 Conservative defector Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood

Jacob Rees-Mogg and his son pictured canvassing against 2014 Conservative defector Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood

North East Somerset: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jacob Rees-Mogg MP

An established Tory MP with a good following in a comfortable seat. Nothing exciting to happen here.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jacob Rees-Mogg MP

Somerton & Frome: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – David Heath MP

A tight vote the last time, but if the Lib Dem’s vote drops the Tories will take the seat back comfortably after 18 years of Lib Dem representation.

Prediction – Conservative Gain – David Warburton

Stroud: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Neil Carmichael MP

Its Carmichael/Drew IV for this seat, after the close result in 2010. Opinion polls say Labour will retake the seat with a comfortable majority, giving David Drew the seat back.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – David Drew

North Swindon: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Justin Tomlinson MP

Regaining the seat in 2010, The Tories will likely hold the seat from a struggling Labour.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Justin Tomlinson MP

South Swindon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Robert Buckland

Now a battleground seat following the Tories claim to the seat in the last election. Opinion polls say that the battle will continue, with one opinion poll declaring a tie. Others show that the Tories will hang on to the seat and I think they will edge victory with a slim majority.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Robert Buckland MP (Solicitor General Of England & Wales)

Taunton Deane: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Jeremy Browne MP

The Liberal Democrats are facing crisis, it is likely that the Tories will take another seat from the Lib Dems in the south.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Rebecca Pow

Tewkesbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Laurence Robertson MP

A strong Tory hold.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Laurence Robertson MP

Thornbury & Yate: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Steve Webb MP

Even though the Lib Dem vote will collapse in this election, I can see this being one of the seats they hold.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Steve Webb MP (Minister Of State For Pensions)

Tiverton & Honiton: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Neil Parish MP

A comfortable majority for the Tories which will prove to be hard to break anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Neil Parish MP

Torbay: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Adrian Sanders MP

Another seat currently held by the Lib Dems destined to fall to the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Kevin Foster

Totnes: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sarah Wollaston MP

The Tories have a comfortable hold here, and will likely hold the seat given the fall in Lib Dem support.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sarah Wollaston MP

Truro & Falmouth: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Sarah Newton MP

The last election saw the Tories take this seat by a small majority. With the fall of the Lib Dems, they will likely increase their majority hugely.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sarah Newton MP (Deputy Chairman Of The Conservative Party)

Wells: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Gain – Tessa Munt MP

The Liberal Democrats won this seat from the Tories in 2010, breaking a hold of 77 years. However, I don’t expect it to be repeated in this election. The Tories will win this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – James Heappey

Weston Super Mare: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Penrose MP

The Tories will keep the seat with the Lib Dem vote declining.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Penrose MP (Lord Commissioner Of HM Treasury)

North Wiltshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – James Gray MP

I doubt the Lib Dems are strong enough to form a strong opponent for the seat in May. I think the Tories will hang on to this one.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – James Gray MP

South West Wiltshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Murrison MP

With a majority over 10,000 it’s likely the Tories will hold this and increase its majority.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Murrison MP (Minister Of State For Northern Ireland)

David Laws has been a successful Member of Parliament, following in the footsteps of Paddy Ashdown

David Laws has been a successful Member of Parliament, following in the footsteps of Paddy Ashdown

Yeovil: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – David Laws MP

Held since 1983, and the former seat of Paddy Ashdown, I cannot see the Lib Dems losing this. Plus they have a huge majority.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – David Laws MP (Minister Of State For The Cabinet Office)

Overall Prediction:

Conservatives – 43 Seats

Labour – 7 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 4 Seats

UKIP – 1 Seat

The Conservatives and Labour will see a surge in seats in this region, whilst the Liberal Democrats will suffer hugely, only retaining four of its seats. UKIP will also likely steal a seat from the Tories, perhaps more if they exceed expectations.

Seat total for Predict the Seats Part 1 and 2:

Conservative – 67 Seats

Labour – 29 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 4 Seats

UKIP – 1 Seat

Next up is North East England!

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

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One thought on “Predicting The Seats: South West

  1. This is very interesting reading. I think the Lib Dems will do better where the MP was first elected in 2010 and worse where the MP is standing down. They might hold Wells but lose Bath for example. If you are right about Cambourne and Redruth it would mean that seat – and its predecesor Falmouth and Cambourne – would be won by four parties in four elections. Surely a record?

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