Predicting The Seats: North East

 

Angel of the North

Angel of the North

Read both Part I and Part II of Predicting the Seats here.

The North East has less seats than many other regions in the UK, only hosting 29 seats in total. Labour hold 25 of those seats, with only the Tories and the Lib Dems holding only 4 of those seats combined. Should be straight forward for Labour right. Right?

Berwick Upon Tweed: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Sir Alan Beith MP

Beith retires in this election, leaving a new MP to take his place. Opinion polls say however that The Tories could take this seat from the Lib Dems, after holding the seat since the party’s inception.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Anne-Marie Trevelyan

Bishop Auckland: 2010 – Labour Hold – Helen Goodman MP

A Labour hold since 1918, with a brief spell with the Liberal National in 1931. No signs of this going Blue again.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Helen Goodman MP (Shadow Minister For Welfare Reform)

Helen Goodman MP

Blaydon: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Anderson MP

A Labour majority of over 9,000. Its unlikely Anderson will be unseated.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Anderson MP

Blyth Valley: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ronnie Campbell MP

A comfortable majority and a poll increase should see Ronnie Campbell grab another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ronnie Campbell MP

Darlington: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jenny Chapman MP

A Labour seat since the 1992 election. I is likely that Darlington will remain red  as Jenny Chapman will retain her seat another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jenny Chapman MP

City Of Durham: 2010 – Labour Hold – Roberta Blackman-Woods MP

A Labour held seat since 1935 and has enjoyed no change since. While the majority is a small one, its likely to increase in this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Roberta Blackman-Woods MP

Durham City

Durham city

North Durham: 2010 – Labour Hold – Kevan Jones MP

With a majority over 12,000, its very likely Labour will retain the seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Kevan Jones MP

North West Durham: 2010 – Labour Hold – Pat Glass MP

Taking over from Hilary Armstrong in the last election, Pat Glass is likely to keep his seat from another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Pat Glass MP

Easington: 2010 – Labour Hold – Grahame Morris MP

Labour has a huge majority in this seat, arguably one of their safest seats in the region. Don’t expect this to change hands anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Grahame Morris MP

Gateshead: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Mearns MP

Another strong majority in this region, with Ian Mearns likely to hold the seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ian Mearns MP

Ed Miliband on the Tyne between Gateshead and Newcastle

Ed Miliband on the Tyne between Gateshead and Newcastle – the North East is a Labour heartland

Hartlepool: 2010 – Labour Hold – Iain Wright MP

Wright won his seat in 2004 via a by-election. However, UKIP have become increasingly strong in Hartlepool and Nigel Farage earmarked the seat as a potential win in the North for his party. Still, it’s likely that Labour will retain the seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Iain Wright MP

Hexham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Guy Opperman MP

A Tory hold since 1924 (if you discount the brief Independent switch). Opperman became MP in the last election, and is likely to hold the seat with the Lib Dem vote free-falling.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Guy Opperman MP

Houghton & Sunderland South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Bridget Philipson MP

A merger from two other seats, Labour will very much keep this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Bridget Philipson MP

Jarrow: 2010 – Labour Hold – Stephen Hepburn MP

A seat with a solid hold by Labour. Unlikely to change hands.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephen Hepburn MP

Middlesbrough Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Andy McDonald

The centre of a recent by-election as well as a controversial documentary, hopefully this seat won’t attract any more attention in a long time.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Andy McDonald MP

Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Blenkinsop MP

Despite being a close majority in the last election, I can imagine Labour will likely hold onto the seat once again. Tom Blenkinsop is a popular figure. Will Goodhand is spearheading the Conservative campaign after coming second in 2010.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tom Blenkinsop MP

Roseberry topping in Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland boarding Redcar constituency

Roseberry topping in Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland boarding Redcar constituency

Newcastle Upon Tyne Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chi Onwurah MP

A good solid majority held here in a strong Labour city.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chi Onwurah MP

Labour MP Chi Onwurah

Labour MP Chi Onwurah

Newcastle Upon Tyne East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Nick Brown MP

A veteran Member of Parliament it is likely Labour will hold this seat. Liberal Democrats posing the biggest threat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nick Brown MP

Newcastle Upon Tyne North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Catherine McKinnell MP

Another strong chance Labour will hold this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Catherine McKinnell MP (Shadow Exchequer Secretary)

Redcar: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Gain – Ian Swales MP

A seat stolen by Labour in the last election, Ian Swales is stepping down at this election. Opinion polls say Labour will take the seat back, eliminating the Lib Dems from the region completely.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Anna Turley

Liberal Democrat MP Ian Swales in his Redcar constituency

Liberal Democrat MP Ian Swales in his Redcar constituency

Sedgefield: 2010 – Labour Hold – Phil Wilson MP

The seat once held by Tony Blair, Phil Wilson was his replacement. Polls say that he won’t be leaving anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Phil Wilson MP

South Shields: 2010 – Labour Hold – Emma Lewell-Buck MP

Winning in the 2012 by election after David Milliband quit politics and moved to the US, Lewell-Buck is likely to pick up a further five years now that she has a prominent part in the core Labour team.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Emma Lewell-Buck MP

Stockton North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alex Cunningham MP

A comfortable majority held, as well as the seat being in Labour hands since its inception.

Predicted Winner – Labour hold – Alex Cunningham MP

Stockton South: 2010 – Conservative Gain – James Wharton MP*

A tight race last time which saw the Tories take the seat from Labour. Three opinion polls have been carried out in this seat, with two pointing towards Labour. However, James Wharton has been popular with many of his constituents which could prove pivotal.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – James Wharton MP*

Conservative MP James Wharton

Conservative MP James Wharton – James is the youngest Conservative in Parliament

Sunderland Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Julie Elliot MP

Known as the quickest declaration during election period, its likely Labour will hold this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Julie Elliot MP

Tynemouth: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alan Campbell MP

Held since 1997 by Alan Campbell, Labour will keep this seat for another election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Alan Campbell MP

North Tyneside: 2010 – Labour Hold – Mary Glindon MP

A huge Labour majority of 13,000 isn’t going to disappear overnight. Labour hold is very likely.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Mary Glindon MP

Wansbeck: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Lavery MP

Lavery isn’t going to lose his 7000 majority so quickly. I feel he’ll strengthen his majority perhaps.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ian Lavery MP

Washington & Sunderland West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sharon Hodgson MP

An extremely crowded seat this time around, with 12 candidates vying for the seat. I still think Labour will win this seat, with a decreased vote.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Sharon Hodgson MP

New Seats:

Labour will increase their seat hold in the North East with the Liberal Democrats losing both of their seats. The Tories will take three seats, however, no party is able to do any damage in a region that is a true Labour strong-hold.

Labour – 26 Seats

Conservative – 3 Seats

Total Seats so far:

Conservative – 69 Seats

Labour – 56 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 4 Seats

UKIP – 1 Seat

Next up: South East

Follow Daily Political View on Twitter: (@DailyPoliticsV)

** “Following a discussion with the editor, the result of Stockton South was changed with permission from the writer from a Labour Gain to a Tory Hold.”

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