Predicting The Seats: Wales

 

The Severn Bridge - we take a look at what the election day may bring in Wales

The Severn Bridge – we take a look at what the election day may bring in Wales

We move to Wales next which remains a strong Labour heartland. Labour hold the most seats in this country with 26, whilst the Conservatives lag far behind on 8. Both The Liberal Democrats & Plaid Cymru hold 3 seats equally. Will any of these seats change hands?

Aberavon: 2010 – Labour Hold – Hywel Francis MP

A high Labour majority over 10,000 could see them hold this seat strongly.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephen Kinnock (Neil Kinnock’s Son)

Aberconwy: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Guto Bebb MP

This is one of the seats that may reflect the national opinion when it comes to Labour & The Tories. The tories won this seat in the last election, but who is to guess if they can hold it or not. Looking at its previous seat, The Tories have held it far longer than Labour have. It’s a swing seat possibly, but I think the Tories will hold it.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Guto Bebb MP

Alyn & Deeside: 2010 – Labour Hold – Mark Tami MP

A close result the last time around, but given that it’s a strong Labour hold, I doubt it will shift anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Mark Tami MP

Arfon: 2010 – Plaid Cymru Gain – Hywel Williams MP

The seat’s previous incarnation has been a Plaid Cymru hold since the 70s. Its unlikely that Labour could take this seat despite the small margin.

Predicted Winner – Plaid Cymru Gold – Hywel Williams MP

Hywel Williams MP - Plaid Crymu

Hywel Williams MP – Plaid Cymru

Blaenau Gwent: 2010 – Labour Gain – Nick Smith MP

Following a regain from a loss in the 2006 by election, its unlikely Labour faces any real competition this time around.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nick Smith MP

Brecon & Radnorshire: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Roger Williams MP

Despite a drop of support across the country, Opinion polls say that this will be one of the seats the Lib Dems will likely hold.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Roger Williams MP

Bridgend: 2010 – Labour Hold – Madeleine Moon MP

A labour hold since 1987, its unlikely to change hands anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Madeleine Moon MP

Caerphilly: 2010 – Labour Hold – Wayne David MP

A Labour hold literally since the seat’s inception in 1918. No chance whatsoever for a change.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Wayne David MP

Cardiff Central: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Jenny Willott MP

Opinion polls put this seat back into Labour hands, as the Lib Dems lost half their support come this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Jo Stevens

Cardiff North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jonathan Evans

A seat which has had its fair share of switches from time to time. Opinion polls do say that Labour will take this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Mari Williams

Cardiff South & Penarth: 2012BE – Labour Hold – Stephen Doughty MP

A hold since 1983 and a recent by election victory in this seat in 2012, its likely that Labour won’t lose this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephen Doughty MP

Cardiff West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Kevin Brennan MP

Another strong Labour showing is likely to happen here. Unlikely to be any shocks.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Kevin Brennan MP (Shadow Minister For Schools)

Labour MP Kevin Brennan

Labour MP Kevin Brennan

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: 2010 – Plaid Cymru Hold – Jonathan Edwards

Plaid hold a good majority in this seat. Given that Labour have struggled to really break out in these seats, its likely this will stay a Plaid seat.

Predicted Winner – Plaid Cymru Hold – Jonathan Edwards M.P.

Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Simon Hart

A tight election the last time round which saw the Tories steal the seat away from Labour. The Tories, according to opinion polls, will keep the seat for another five years if polls are right.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Simon Hart MP

Ceredigion: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mark Williams MP

A tough fight for the Liberal Democrats to fight, what with a declining vote. However, opinion polls say that they will hold this.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mark Williams MP

Clwyd South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Susan Jones

A labour hold. Confident it won’t go anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Susan Jones MP

Clwyd West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Jones MP

A good majority in this seat held by the Tories. Even if Labour have a boost in this area, I doubt the Tories would lose it.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Jones MP

Cynon Valley: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ann Clwyd MP

A huge majority held here by Labour. Unlikely to be overturned.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ann Clwyd MP

Delyn: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Hanson MP

It’s a tight seat here, with a slim majority for Labour. I reckon things will stay very much the same, with perhaps a tighter majority.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Hanson MP (Shadow Minister Of State, Home Office)

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: 2010 – Plaid Cymru Hold – Elfyn Llwyd MP

A very strong Plaid hold which is unlikely to disappear.

Predicted Winner – Plaid Cymru Hold – Liz Saville-Roberts

Gower: 2010 – Labour Hold – Martin Canton MP

A strong Labour seat since 1910. It will stay Labour for a lot longer.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Liz Evans

Chris Evans MP

Chris Evans MP

Islwyn: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Evans MP

Labour hold here a majority of 12,000 with a 49 percent voting share. The Tories only have a 14 percent share. Its easy to guess who walks away the victor.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Evans MP

Llanelli: 2010 – Labour Hold – Nia Griffith MP

I think Labour will build from 2010, in which it had over 4,000 majority. It has over a 12 percent voting share over the Tories and its likely to increase this time round.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nia Griffith MP

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: 2010 – Labour Hold – Dai Havard MP

Much like the other seats, I think Labour are comfortable enough to hold this seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Gerald Jones

Monmouth: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Davis MP

I think he will hold this seat, and stay on for another five years. He is not to be confused with the other David Davis, who almost became Conservative leader in 2005.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Davis MP

David Davis MP

David Davis MP

Montgomeryshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Edward Glyn Davies

Taking this from the Lib Dems in the last election, Its likely that their vote will increase in this seat this time around, making their hold much more firm.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Edward Glyn Davies MP

Neath: 2010 – Labour Hold – Peter Hain M.P.

Hain steps down this time round to make round for what is likely a new Labour M.P. I doubt any other party would seize this party from Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Christina Rees

Newport East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jessica Morden MP

The Labour & Lib Dem votes were very close in the last election. But given that the Lib Dem vote is due to drop, Labour will hold this seat comfortably for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jessica Morden MP

Newport West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Paul Flynn MP

Labour will likely beef up its majority in this seat following the last election as they hold a comfortable majority.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Paul Flynn MP

Ogmore: 2010 – Labour Hold – Huw Irranca Davies MP

A comfortable hold for Labour in this seat which likely won’t go away.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Huw Irranca Davies MP (Shadow Minister For Food & Farming)

Pontypridd: 2010 – Labour Hold – Owen Smith

With The Lib Dem vote tumbling down, this will be a much more comfortable majority for Labour this time round.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Owen Smith M.P. (Shadow Secretary Of State For Wales)

Preseli Pembrokeshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Stephen Crabb MP

The Tories have a good hold on this seat and have held it through many elections thus far. Its likely to stay Tory a third time round.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Stephen Crabb MP (Secretary Of State For Wales)

Rhondda: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Bryant MP

A very strong Labour hold here which won’t disintergrate anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Bryant MP (Shadow Minister For The Arts)

Swansea East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sian James MP

The Lib Dem drop will increase Labour’s vote by a huge amount.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Carolyn Harris

Swansea West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Geriant Davies

A tight result in the last election, but the Lib Dem drop will give Labour a stronger chance to keep this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Geriant Davies MP

Torfaen: 2010 – Labour Hold – Paul Peter Murphy MP

Stray Lib Dem votes in this area could go to the Conservatives and potentially seize this seat from Labour. However, its unlikely to occur.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nicklaus Thomas-Symonds

Vale Of Clwyd: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Ruane MP

Another tough seat for the two main parties to fight over. But seeing as Labour have held this seat since 97, its likely they’ll keep it for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Ruane MP

Alun Carines MP

Alun Cairns MP

Vale Of Glamorgan: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Alun Cairns MP

A seat that has changed hands many times in its 32 year history. This time, it’ll head towards the Tories and stay with them for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alun Cairns MP (Minister For Wales)

Wrexham: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Lucas MP

Apart from a brief flirtation with the Social Democratic party from 1981-1983, this has remained a Labour seat since 1935. Chances of it changing are slim.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ian Lucas MP  (Shadow Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Business and Regulatory Reform) (Shadow Minister For The Middle East & Africa)

Ynys Mon: 2010 – Labour Hold – Albert Owen MP

A tight race could occur in this seat between Labour & Plaid Cymru. I believe Labour will hold it though for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Albert Owen MP

Total Welsh Prediction:

Welsh Labour – 28 Seats

Welsh Conservatives – 7 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

Welsh Liberal Democrats – 2 Seats

Total Seats from the Predict The Seats instalments:

Labour – 83 Seats

Conservatives – 77 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 6 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

UKIP – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s