Predicting the Seats: South East England

 

Big_Ben_Clock

We shift now to the south east of England. Her the Conservatives have a chance to defend their ground, whilst Labour and UKIP are set to seize some surprise seats, and hopefully for the Liberal Democrats to hold onto as many seats as possible. What will happen for the Greens and the current Speaker John Bercow?

Aldershot: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gerald Howarth MP

We start with a pretty strong safe Tory seat in Aldershot. Howarth has been the MP since 97, and will likely have another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gerald Howarth MP

Arundel and South Downs: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nick Herbert MP

With the Lib Dem vote going down, I can see the Conservatives increasing their lead in this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nick Herbert MP

Ashford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Damian Green MP

Holding a majority of over 17,000 is an impressive feat for the Conservatives in this seat. Unlikely to see it drop.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Damian Green MP

Aylesbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Lidington MP

A Tory hold since 1924. Lidington has been the MP since 1992 and will likely serve the next five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Lidington MP (Minister Of State For Europe)

Banbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Tony Baldry MP

Baldry stands down at this election, in what will likely be making way for Victoria Prentis to take the seat and continue the Tory run.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Victoria Prentis

Basingstoke: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Maria Miller MP

Maria Miller didn’t have a great two years as Culture Secretary, ending in awkward fashion. However, she will easily retain her seat for another five years. Perhaps she might get a new cabinet position also if the Tories win, or perhaps a Deputy Leadership bid.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Maria Miller MP

Remember her?

Maria Miller MP, remember her?

Beaconsfield: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Dominic Grieve MP

Might be a fight between UKIP and the Tories, but I can see the Tories will win this.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Dominic Grieve MP

Bexhill & Battle: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gregory Baker MP

I can’t see the Tories losing this seat, given a huge majority here, and the Lib Dems shredding votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Huw Merriman

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nick Gibb M.P.

As the Lib Dem vote goes down, UKIP’s vote goes up. Never the less, The Tories maintain their hold on the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nick Gibb MP (Minister Of State For Education)

Bracknell: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Dr. Phillip Lee MP

A Tory seat since 1997, I cannot see this being lost to another party, particularly UKIP.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Dr. Phillip Lee MP

Brighton Kemptown: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Simon Kirby MP

A swing seat for a number of elections now, with both Labour seats disappearing to two different parties. Its also a very crowded election here too. Opinion Polls say that Labour will likely take this seat back, but what about the another seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Nancy Platts

Brighton Pavilion: 2010 – Green Gain – Caroline Lucas MP

Caroline Lucas has done a very good job in the last five years serving the local seat. Because of Labour’s poor performance, the Greens are likely to hold the seat. But part of me also thinks that Caroline has done a convincing job in getting the locals round on her side. Green politics might be growing in this settlement, but will it hang around?

Predicted Winner – Green Hold – Caroline Lucas MP

Upon entering Parliament in 2010, Caroline Lucas became the first ever Green MP. Will she be re-elected this year?

Upon entering Parliament in 2010, Caroline Lucas became the first ever Green MP. Will she be re-elected this year?

Buckingham: 2010 – Speaker Hold – John Bercow MP

Its tradition that parties do not contest the Speaker’s seat. Unless UKIP provide a shock twist, Bercow will return for another five years as Speaker.

Predicted Winner – Speaker Hold – John Bercow

Canterbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Julian Brazier MP

Despite a smaller majority than other seats, The Tories will likely hang on to the seat, with an established M.P in the area.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Julian Brazier MP

Chatham & Aylesford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Tracey Crouch

The Tories managed to steal this seat off Labour in the last election, But holding it is going to be a challenge. But according to polls, its likely the seat will stay with the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Tracey Crouch MP

Chesham & Amersham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Cheryl Gillan MP

The majority of this seat is the same as some total of votes of winning seats in this country. That is how safe this seat is for the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Cheryl Gillan MP

Chichester: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Tyrie MP

Very much another safe Tory seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Tyrie MP (Chairman of the Treasury Select Committee)

Crawley: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Henry Smith MP

Another swing seat which will be interesting to see. Smith won the seat in the last election following 13 years of Labour representation. This election, Smith will likely hang on to the seat according to opinion polls.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Henry Smith MP

Dartford: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Gareth Johnson MP

Another Tory gain from Labour. Tough win for Gareth Johnson, but he did manage to reclaim an old Tory seat. According to opinion polls, the Tories will hold the seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gareth Johnson MP

Dover: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Charlie Elphicke MP

This makes three in a row for Tory gains in the South. Elphicke beat Gwyn Prosser in 2010 to claim the seat, and with opinion polls, The Tories will hang on to the seat, but only by 4 percent. Might be tight.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Charlie Elphicke MP

Eastbourne: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Stephen Lloyd MP

Winning the seat in the last election via a tight result, don’t expect the Lib Dem to claim this back if this is a tight seat. The Tories may chop off enough votes over to the Tories to take back the seat after a five year blip.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Caroline Ansell

Mike Thornton is expected to retain his seat on May 7th.

Mike Thornton is expected to retain his seat on May 7th.

Eastleigh: 2013BE – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mike Thornton MP

The centre of a dramatic by-election two years ago, which saw the Liberal Democrats snatching a seat from the Tories grasp. Opinion polls also say that the seat will stay Lib Dem for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mike Thronton MP

Epsom & Ewell: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Chris Grayling MP

With a majority of over 15,000 in the last election, its likely that Chris Grayling will return to the House.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Chris Grayling MP (Secretary Of State For Justice/Lord Chancellor)

Esher & Walton: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Dominic Raab MP

A good strong majority in this seat which will likely either get bigger, or smaller if UKIP lifts things up.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Dominic Raab MP

Fareham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Hoban MP

With a Lib Dem dip in the region, the Tories will likely hold the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Suella Fernandes

Faversham & Mid Kent: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Hugh Robertson MP

A majority over 17,000 will make a Tory hold certain.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Helen Whately

Folkestone & Hythe: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Damian Collins MP

Opinion polls say that Labour & UKIP will make huge increases, whilst seeing the Lib Dem vote drop. But still, The Tories are likely to hang onto the seat by a few percent.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Damian Collins M.P. (PPS To The Secretary Of State For Northern Ireland)

Gillingham & Rainham: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Rehman Chishti  MP

A close fought election in 2010 which saw the Tories oust Labour. The two main candidates will fight again for the seat, with Labour hoping to regain it once again. However, it is likely due to the sizeable majority, The Tories will hang on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Rehman Chishti MP

Gosport: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Caroline Dinenage MP

A huge majority held here, as well as the Lib Dem vote going down, will be confident enough for Local Tories in this seat to hold their seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Caroline Dinenage MP (Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS) to the Minister for Women & Equalities)

Gravesham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Adam Holloway MP

A strong Tory hold, with Labour a good distance away from ever gaining this seat back. With both parties neck and neck in national polls, its unlikely Labour will seize this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Adam Holloway MP

Guildford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Anne Milton MP

An 8000 majority was the last gap between the Tories & Lib Dems in 2010. But with a fall in Lib Dem votes, the Tories will hold this seat comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Anne Milton MP (Vice Chamberlain Of The Household)

East Hampshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Damian Hinds MP

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception in 1983. Unlikely to change hands.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Damian Hinds MP

North East Hampshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – James Arbuthnot MP

Arbuthnot steps down at this election to make way for new blood. A safe Tory seat will likely see a new Tory candidate take this seat comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Ranil Jayawardena

North West Hampshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir George Young MP

Sir George Young

Sir George Young

Sir George steps down from this seat, very much like the twin seat above, allowing new blood to stand for the seat. Once again, this seat is a strong Tory hold, and is unlikely to change hands in this election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Kit Malthouse (London AM for West Central)

Hastings & Rye: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Amber Rudd

Always a tight seat for many years. The Tories won this seat back from Labour, but look likely to lose it back according to opinion polls, back to Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Sarah Owen

Havant: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Willetts MP

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception. Willetts steps down this election and so the new Tory candidate could comfortably hold the seat for a further five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alan Mak

Henley: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Howell MP

A popular tory seat with Michael Hesseltine & Boris Johnson holding this seat in the past. Howell will likely hang on to the seat, given the drop in Lib Dem votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Howell MP

Horsham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Francis Maude MP

Maude steps down this election after 18 years of service. Given that this is another safe seat for the Conservatives, its unlikely that this will go away but Blue.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Quin

Hove: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mike Weatherley MP

A swing seat in this region which could go either way. The Tories won this seat in 2010, but this seat could easily return to Labour. Opinion polls say Labour will win this one back comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Peter Kyle

Isle Of Wight: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Turner MP

The Tories hold a majority of over 10,000 over the Lib Dems. It is unlikely the Lib Dems can overturn this.

Predicted Winner-  Conservative Hold – Andrew Turner MP

Lewes: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Norman Baker MP

It’s not all doom and gloom. Polls say that this will be one of the safe seats for the Lib Dems in this region. Fingers crossed?

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Norman Baker MP

Theresa May

Theresa May

Maidenhead: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Theresa May MP

Given that Theresa May is a likely candidate for Conservative Leader if David Cameron loses the election, I can’t possibly see her lose this seat at all.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – R.T. Hon Theresa May MP (Home Secretary)

Maidstone & The Weald: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Helen Grant MP

Another strong Tory hold that will likely stay blue.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Helen Grant MP (Minister For Sport & Tourism)

Meon Valley: 2010 – Conservative Hold – George Hollingbery MP

Holding a 12,000 majority over the Lib Dems is a clear sign that this seat isn’t going anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – George Hollingbery MP

Milton Keynes North: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Lancaster MP

Opinion polls say that the Tories will hang on to this seat for another five years with a declining Lib Dem vote.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Lancaster MP (Lord Commissioner Of HM Treasury)

Milton Keynes South: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Iain Stewart

Another tight seat in the south which both Labour and the Conservatives could win. However, opinion polls call this to the Tories, but with a tight result.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Iain Stewart MP

Mole Valley: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Paul Beresford MP

A strong hold here for the Tories which is unlikely to disappear.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sir Paul Beresford MP

New Forest East: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Julian Lewis MP

With a dip in Lib Dem votes likely to happen here, the Tories will capture another five years by holding on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Julian Lewis MP

New Forest West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Desmond Swayne MP

Another strong Tory hold which will become even stronger with declining Lib Dem votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Desmond Swayne MP (Minister Of State For International Development)

Newbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Richard Benyon MP

A good strong Tory seat held since 2005, after winning it from the Lib Dems. Likely to remain a Tory seat given the drop in Lib Dem support.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Richard Benyon MP

Oxford East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Andrew Smith MP

With a Lib Dem voter dip, the Labour party will increase their lead in a very rare seat they hold in this region.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Andrew Smith MP

Nicola Blackwood MP

Nicola Blackwood MP

Oxford West & Abingdon: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Nicola Blackwood MP

A close result in the previous election in this seat. However, opinion Polls say that the Tories will cling on to this seat for a further five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nicola Blackwood MP

Portsmouth North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Penny Mordaunt MP

A Tory gain in the last election from an exhausted Labour party. With an election with no clear winner, polls say that this will stay Tory.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Penny Mordaunt M.P. (Parliamentary Under Secretary Of State, Department For Communities & Local Government)

Portsmouth South: 2013 Defection – Independent from Liberal Democrat – Mike Hancock MP

An opinion poll will take this independent seat towards the Conservatives, eliminating another Lib Dem seat from the region.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Flick Drummond

Reading East: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Rob Wilson MP

Given that the Tories have a comfortable majority, I cannot see this switching parties anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Rob Wilson MP (Minister For Civil Society)

Reading West: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Alok Sharma MP

A Tory gain here in the last election, which is likely to stay Tory for a further five years. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alok Sharma M.P.

Reigate: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Crispin Blunt MP

Apart from a brief defection before the 97 election, this has been an extremely solid Tory seat, which doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Crispin Blunt MP

Rochester & Strood: 2014BE – UKIP Gain – Mark Reckless MP

Six Months ago this seat became UKIP’s 2nd official seat in Parliament thanks to another defection. However, opinion polls say that the Tories will take this one back, making Reckless’s brief run as UKIP MP a short lived one indeed.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Kelly Tolhurst

David Cameron with Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst

David Cameron with Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst

Romsey & Southampton North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Caroline Noakes MP

A win from the Lib Dems in a close contest was impressive for the Tories. It will be a slightly more relief with the drop in Lib Dem support, making this seat a much more comfortable hold.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Caroline Noakes MP

Runnymede & Weybridge: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Phillip Hammond MP

A senior member of the Tory cabinet won’t go away that easily. Not least with his name floating around for future leadership.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Phillip Hammond MP (Secretary Of State For Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs)

Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, in Lithuania

Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, in Lithuania

Sevenoaks: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Michael Fallon MP

Fallon has held this seat in 1997, and with a bigger profile in the cabinet, I cannot see him losing his seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Michael Fallon MP (Secretary Of State For Defence)

Sittingbourne & Sheppey: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Gordon Henderson MP

Another safe Tory seat. Unlikely for Labour to win it back so soon after they lost it.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gordon Henderson MP

Slough: 2010 – Labour Hold – Fiona Mactaggart MP

Another one of the few strong Labour seats in this region, which will likely stay with Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Fiona Mactaggart MP

Southampton, Itchen: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Denham MP

Denham’s final election contest as a MP earned him his seat back, but only just. Recent opinion polls say that Labour will hang on to this seat again, with a new face representing the party.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Rowenna Davis

Southampton, Test: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alan Whitehead MP

Another good strong seat in the south for Labour. Unlikely to go blue.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Alan Whitehead MP

Spelthorne: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Kwasi Kwarteng MP

A very strong Tory seat that will get even stronger with the decline of Lib Dem support.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Kwasi Kwarteng MP

Kwasi Kwarteng

Kwasi Kwarteng

East Surrey: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sam Gyiamh MP

A comfortable Tory hold which will increase with the decline of the Lib Dems.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sam Gyiamh MP (Parliamentary Under Secretary Of State At The Department Of Education)

Surrey Heath: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Michael Gove MP

A senior figure in Cameron’s cabinet who is pretty well known. Unlikely he will be going anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Michael Gove MP (Government Chief Whip of the House Of Commons. Parliamentary Secretary To The Treasury)

South West Surrey: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Hunt MP

Another major figure in Cameron’s cabinet, which according to opinion polls will increase his lead over other parties.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Hunt MP (Secretary Of State For Health)

Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt

Mid Sussex: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nicholas Soames MP

Soames has held this seat since 1997, as well as the seat being Tory since the seat’s creation. Unlikely to go towards another party.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nicholas Soames MP

North Thanet: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Roger Gale MP

Another comfortable Tory hold not changing parties anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sir Roger Gale MP

South Thanet: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Laura Sandys MP

A big seat highlighted here as UKIP leader Nigel Farage looks set to take the seat from the Tories, finally breaking him away from Brussels after 16 years of service as a MEP. Opinion polls are mixed at best, some favouring UKIP and some favouring Tory. But if I’m honest, I think Nigel Farage will take this on name value and appeal as a fresh new face into the parliament.

Predicted Winner – UKIP Gain – Nigel Farage

Will Nigel Farage find himself in Parliament?

Will Nigel Farage find himself in Parliament?

Tonbridge & Malling: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir John Stanley MP

Again, another Tory stronghold which will stay Tory.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sir John Stanley MP

Tunbridge Wells: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Greg Clark MP

With the Lib Dem vote dipping in this seat, the Tories will strengthen their lead in this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Greg Clark MP (Minister Of State For Universities, Science & Cities)

Wantage: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Ed Vaizey MP

Vaizey won the seat back in 05 and has not lost it since. Polls say that he will hold the seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Ed Vaizey MP (Minister For Culture, Communications & Creative Industries)

Wealden: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Charles Hendry MP

A huge Tory majority held in this seat which will likely stay put.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nusrat Ghani

Winchester: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Steve Brine MP

The last race in 2010 took the Tories and the Lib Dems pretty close to the wire. But like in other seats, the drop in Lib Dem support will make the Tories stronger.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Steve Brine MP

Windsor: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Adam Afriyie MP

Afriyie had a bit of press during Cameron’s premiership if you recall. There were rumours that he would contest for the leadership following declining poll numbers in opinion polls. If the Tories lose this election, we could see those rumours resurface and perhaps come to light. Either way, he’ll be back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Adam Afriyie MP

David Cameron speaking at a Conservative Party conference

David Cameron

Witney: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Prime Minister David Cameron MP

Come on, it is the PM for god sake!

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Prime Minister David Cameron MP

Woking: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jonathan Lord MP

Opinion polls say the Tories will increase their lead in Woking by a significant mile.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jonathan Lord MP

Wokingham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Redwood MP

The Tories have held this seat since the inception, so its not going anywhere else but blue.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Redwood MP

East Worthing & Shoreham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Tim Loughton MP

A comfortable majority in this seat that will not go away.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Tim Loughton MP

Worthing West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Peter Bottomley MP

A long serving MP who is set to last another five years more.

Predicted Winner – Peter Bottomley MP

Wycombe: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Steve Baker MP

Opinion polls say that this seat is very likely to stay with the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Steve Baker MP

New seat prediction from the current instalment:

Conservatives – 72 Seats / Labour – 7 Seats / Liberal Democrats- 2 Seats / UKIP – 1 Seat / Green Party – 1 Seat / Speaker – 1 Seat

Total seat prediction thus far:

Conservatives – 149 Seats

Labour – 90 Seats

DUP – 9 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 8 Seats

Sinn Fein – 5 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

SDLP – 3 Seats

UKIP – 2 Seats

Green – 1 Seat

Independent – 1 Seat

Speaker – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

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One thought on “Predicting the Seats: South East England

  1. Good stuff again, I would point very minor error for Tonbridge & Malling. Sir John Stanley is stepping down to be replaced by Tom Tugenhadt

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