Predicting the Seats: West Midlands

 

Birmingham City Council

Birmingham City Council

The Predicting the Seats series moves towards the West Midlands, where Labour and the Conservatives will battle for seats to make up the next parliament. This region maybe crucial to which party wins overall, or holds the percentage of largest seats. The Conservatives edge Labour out with 33 Seats, compared with Labour’s 24. The Liberal Democrats only hold 2.

Aldridge-Brownhills: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Richard Shepherd M.P.

A long Tory hold since the days of Thatcher. And with a high voting share, its unlikely this will turn red.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Wendy Morton

Birmingham, Edgbaston: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gisela Stuart M.P.

Two opinion polls show Labour increasing their lead over the Tories. So its likely this seat will stay with Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Gisela Stuart M.P.

Birmingham, Erdington: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jack Dromey

A tight seat in the city of Birmingham, but polls say that Labour will do well here.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jack Dromey M.P. (Shadow Minister For Policing)

Birmingham, Hall Green: 2010 – Labour Hold – Roger Godsiff

A tough contest may occur between Labour and Respect. Respect almost won the last time around when the leader Selma Yaqoob came close to taking the seat from Labour. But with her no longer associated with the party, it makes the Respect message harder to get through. So I think Labour will safely hang on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Roger Godsiff M.P.

Birmingham, Hodge Hill: 2010 – Labour Hold – Liam Byrne M.P.

Labour hold a comfortable lead in this seat, and with the Lib Dem vote planning to fall, its likely this seat will be much more protected.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Liam Byrne M.P.

Birmingham, Ladywood: 2010 – Labour Hold – Shabana Mahmood M.P.

Another really safe Labour seat in the city which will grow with the decline of the Lib Dems.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Shabana Mahmood M.P.

Birmingham, Northfield: 2010 – Labour Hold – Richard Burden M.P.

A tight contest in the last election in which Labour held the seat easily. If anything, this election will see Labour increase to high 50s.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Richard Burden M.P.

Birmingham, Perry Barr: 2010 – Labour Hold – Khalid Mahmood M.P.

Labour hold a very big majority in this seat, and its unlikely to disappear in this election. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Khalid Mahmood M.P.

Birmingham, Selly Oak: 2010 – Labour Hold – Steve McCabe

Another tight race in a Birmingham seat between Labour and the Tories. Labour did though come out on top. This election will see Labour increase their majority even further away from The Tories.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Steve McCabe M.P.

Birmingham, Yardley: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – John Hemming M.P.

Opinion polls say that the Liberal Democrats will remarkably hold this seat, despite many people believing that this will dip back towards Labour. Rather surprising, but I’ll take it none the less.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – John Hemming M.P.

Conservative Sajid Javid

Conservative Sajid Javid

Bromsgrove: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sajid Javid M.P.

The Culture Secretary For Media & Sport is likely to hang on to this seat for another five years, and if the Tories lose the election, put him in the limelight for Leadership material.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sajid Javid M.P. (Secretary Of State For Culture, Media & Sport)

Burton: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Andrew Griffiths

The Tories gained this from Labour in the last election, and while they might not increase their majority, I think they’ll still keep hold of the seat by a good margin. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Griffiths M.P.

Cannock Chase: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Aidan Burley

The Tories also gained this seat from Labour in the last election. But opinion polls say that this will return to Labour in this election by a good margin.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Janos Toth

Coventry North East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Bob Ainsworth M.P.

Ainsworth steps down in this seat to allow someone new in. And with this being a very safe Labour seat, I can’t see Labour losing this.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Colleen Fletcher

Coventry North West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Geoffrey Robinson M.P.

This seat has been a Labour hold since 74. And with Robinson having been in this seat since the 76 by election, I don’t see this going away.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Geoffrey Robinson M.P.

Coventry South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim Cunningham M.P.

Labour will likely hold the seat given that they have had it since 1997, the seat’s inception.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jim Cunningham M.P.

Dudley North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Austin M.P.

This was a very close seat in the last election, with Labour only just winning. Opinion polls give Labour a somewhat bigger lead this time around, so its likely Labour can make this a stronger seat this time around. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ian Austin M.P.

Dudley South: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Chris Kelly

The Tories managed to steal this seat from Labour in the last election. An opinion puts The Tories a number of points ahead, rather than just being a straight out lead. Could be a hold, but it’ll be close. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mike Wood

Halesowen & Rowley Regis: 2010 – Conservative Gain – James Morris

Much like Dudley South, The Tories took this seat from Labour in the last election. However, two opinion polls put Labour in the lead here, so its likely this seat will return to the red corner in this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephanie Peacock

Hereford & South Herefordshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jesse Norman

The Tories had a challenge with the Lib Dems in the last election, just getting the win. With the Lib Dem vote collapsing in this election, The Tories will very much hold this seat comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jesse Norman M.P.

North Herefordshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Bill Wiggin

It’s the same situation with the previous seat. An increased majority this time around, no question. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Bill Wiggin M.P.

Kenilwroth & Southam: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Wright

A good margin over the Lib Dems The Tories have in this seat. And with the Lib Dems losing votes, The Tories will hold this for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Wright M.P.  (Attorney General For England & Wales) (Advocate General For Northern Ireland)

Lichfield: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Michael Fabricant M.P.

With the Lib Dems losing votes, the Tories will hold this seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Michael Fabricant M.P.

Michael Fabricant

Michael Fabricant

Ludlow: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Philip Dunne M.P.

The Tories have good mileage from The Lib Dems, and with the LD vote heading down, it makes this seat much more comfortable.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Philip Dunne M.P. (Minister For Defence Equipment, Support & Technology)

Meriden: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Caroline Spelman

With a majority over 16,000, its extremely unlikely for the Tories to lose this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Caroline Spelman M.P.

Newcastle-Under-Lyme: 2010 – Labour Hold – Paul Farrelly M.P.

Quite close in the last election, but Labour had the edge. Seeing as this has been a long Labour hold, It will remain red for this election. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Paul Farrelly M.P.

Nuneaton: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Marcus Jones

This switch returned blue after eighteen years as a Labour seat. Opinion polls say that it will quickly return to Labour, but only with a 3% lead.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Vicky Fowler

Redditch: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Karen Lumley

A Tory gain that everyone saw coming, given how controversial the Labour candidate was.  Opinion polls also say that this will not return to Labour, and will likely remain blue for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Karen Lumley M.P.

Rugby: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mark Pawsey

The Tories took this seat firmly away from Labour with a 6,000 majority. I think the Tories will either strengthen their majority, or it will go down slightly.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Pawsey M.P.

Shrewsbury & Atcham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Daniel Kawczynski M.P.

The Lib Dem vote will fall very hard, allowing the Tories to win this with ease.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Daniel Kawczynski M.P.

North Shropshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Owen Paterson M.P.

Even if the Lib Dem vote wasn’t going down, the Tories would still hold this seat, as they have down since 83.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Owen Paterson M.P.

Solihull: 2010  – Liberal Democrat Hold – Lorely Burt M.P.

Two Opinion polls have put the Tories ahead in this seat, therefore making The Lib Dems much more weaker in this region in the process.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Julian Knight

Stafford: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jeremy Lefroy

The Tories won this seat in the last election. Opinion polls say that they will likely hang onto the seat and increase their voting share.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Lefroy M.P.

Staffordshire Moorlands: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Karen Bradley

I can see the Tories holding this seat by increasing their majority off Lib Dem votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Karen Bradley M.P. (Parliamentary Undersecretary Of State For Modern Slavery & Organised Crime)

South Staffordshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gavin Williamson

Tories could increase their lead in this seat quite well according to polls.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gavin Williamson M.P. (Parliamentary Private Secretary To The Prime Minister)

Stoke-On-Trent Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tristram Hunt

A Labour hold since 1950. A pretty safe bet this isn’t going anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tristram Hunt M.P.  (Shadow Secretary Of State For Education)

Tristram Hunt

Tristram Hunt

Stoke-On-Trent North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Joan Walley M.P.

Walley will step down in this election to allow someone else the chance. Likely to win will be Labour’s Ruth Smeeth, given that this is another safe Labour seat for years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ruth Smeeth

Stoke-On-Trent South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Robert Flello M.P.

Another long term Labour seat in Stoke. This is likely to stay red.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Robert Flello M.P.

Stone: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Bill Cash M.P.

A high vote share from the Tories in this seat assures them another five years in this area. Predicted Winner- Conservative Hold – Bill Cash M.P.

Stourbridge: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Margot Jones

The Tories won this seat in 2010 via a close result. Its likely they will keep it as Labour do not have the momentum to win it back. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Margot Jones M.P.

Stratford-On-Avon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nadhim Zahawi

A Tory hold since 1997 and with a prolific new emerging member of the party, I doubt this will turn red.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nadhim Zahawi M.P.

Sutton Coldfield: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Mitchell M.P.

Andrew Mitchell is a prolific member of the Tories, and name value alone will keep him in the seat. Plus the lib dem vote will drop.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Mitchell M.P.

Tamworth: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Christopher Pincher

A gain from Labour in 2010 and will likely stay blue this time round.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Christopher Pincher M.P.

Telford: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Wright M.P.

A close contest in 2010, but seeing as this seat has a Labour history, it will very much stay red.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Wright M.P.

Walsall North: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Winnick M.P.

Winnick has held this seat since 1979, and will likely hold it for another five years. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Winnick M.P.

Walsall South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Valerie Vaz

A Labour hold since 1974 which isn’t going red anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Valerie Vaz M.P.

Warley: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Spellar M.P.

A huge Labour majority here in this seat. Unlikely to change.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – John Spellar M.P. (Shadow Minister For Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs)

Warwick & Leamington: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Chris White

A tight seat in 2010 with the Conservatives winning it from Labour. An opinion poll puts the Tories ahead, but only just. So perhaps this will stay blue a little while longer.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Chris White M.P.

North Warwickshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Dan Byles

With only a majority of 54 in 2010, the Tories really need to pull weight to keep this seat. However, opinion polls say that Labour will retake this seat back. Maybe with a bigger majority perhaps.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Mike O Brien

West Bromwich East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Watson M.P.

Watson has had his fair bit of publicity in the last five years. Most of it fighting Murdoch. He’s built himself a little profile which might keep him on for another five years. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tom Watson M.P.

West Bromwich West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Adrian Bailey M.P.

Labour have a comfortable lead in this seat, one that is unlikely to disappear.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Adrian Bailey M.P. (Chairman Of The Business, Innovation & Skills Select Committee)

Wolverhampton North East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Emma Reynolds

Only once has this seat turned to the Tories and that was in Margaret Thatcher’s third election victory in 1987. Cannot see this turning blue again. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Emma Reynolds M.P. (Shadow Minister For Housing)

Wolverhampton South East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Pat McFadden M.P.

A huge majority held here by Labour which isn’t disappearing anytime soon. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Pat McFadden M.P. (Shadow Minister For Europe)

Wolverhampton South West: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Paul Uppal

A Tory gain in 2010 in what is a very strong Labour city. However, polls say that this will turn red again this election. Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Rob Marris

Worchester: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Robin Walker

Two opinion polls say both Labour & The Tories will win this seat. It’s a tough one to call, but I reckon The Tories will hold this seat for another five years. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Robin Walker M.P.

Mid Worcestershire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Peter Luff M.P.

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nigel Huddleston

Nigel Huddleston; Parliamentary Candidate for Mid Worcestershire (Conservatives)

Nigel Huddleston; Parliamentary Candidate for Mid Worcestershire (Conservatives)

West Worcestershire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Harriett Baldwin

The tories hold a comfortable majority over Labour in this seat, and given the polls between Labour & The Tories are neck & neck, its unlikely this will swing anywhere

but blue. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Harriet Baldwin M.P.

The Wrekin: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Pritchard M.P.

The Tories hold a clear margin over Labour in this seat. Doubt this will change colours.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Pritchard M.P.

Wyre Forest: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mark Garnier

Garnier won this seat from Richard Taylor in the last election after 9 years of the Health Concern party being in this seat. Some may say Taylor is too old for such a task at 80 years old. The Tories might hold this, but then again, the NHS message could win round voters to Taylor’s cause once again. Its hard to say, but I’ll risk it and say Richard Taylor will win again.

Predicted Winner – National Health Action Gain – Richard Taylor

West Midlands Prediction:

Labour – 29 Seats

Conservatives – 28 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 1 Seat

National Health Action – 1 Seat

Total Seat Predictions:

Conservative Party – 178 Seats / Labour Party – 123 Seats / SNP – 53 Seats / Liberal Democrats – 10 Seats / DUP – 9 Seats / Sinn Fein – 5 Seats / Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats / SDLP – 3 Seats / UKIP – 2 Seats / Green – 1 Seat / Independent – 1 Seat / National Health Action – 1 Seat / Speaker – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

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