Predicting the Seats: West Midlands

 

Birmingham City Council

Birmingham City Council

The Predicting the Seats series moves towards the West Midlands, where Labour and the Conservatives will battle for seats to make up the next parliament. This region maybe crucial to which party wins overall, or holds the percentage of largest seats. The Conservatives edge Labour out with 33 Seats, compared with Labour’s 24. The Liberal Democrats only hold 2.

Aldridge-Brownhills: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Richard Shepherd M.P.

A long Tory hold since the days of Thatcher. And with a high voting share, its unlikely this will turn red.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Wendy Morton

Birmingham, Edgbaston: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gisela Stuart M.P.

Two opinion polls show Labour increasing their lead over the Tories. So its likely this seat will stay with Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Gisela Stuart M.P.

Birmingham, Erdington: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jack Dromey

A tight seat in the city of Birmingham, but polls say that Labour will do well here.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jack Dromey M.P. (Shadow Minister For Policing)

Birmingham, Hall Green: 2010 – Labour Hold – Roger Godsiff

A tough contest may occur between Labour and Respect. Respect almost won the last time around when the leader Selma Yaqoob came close to taking the seat from Labour. But with her no longer associated with the party, it makes the Respect message harder to get through. So I think Labour will safely hang on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Roger Godsiff M.P.

Birmingham, Hodge Hill: 2010 – Labour Hold – Liam Byrne M.P.

Labour hold a comfortable lead in this seat, and with the Lib Dem vote planning to fall, its likely this seat will be much more protected.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Liam Byrne M.P.

Birmingham, Ladywood: 2010 – Labour Hold – Shabana Mahmood M.P.

Another really safe Labour seat in the city which will grow with the decline of the Lib Dems.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Shabana Mahmood M.P.

Birmingham, Northfield: 2010 – Labour Hold – Richard Burden M.P.

A tight contest in the last election in which Labour held the seat easily. If anything, this election will see Labour increase to high 50s.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Richard Burden M.P.

Birmingham, Perry Barr: 2010 – Labour Hold – Khalid Mahmood M.P.

Labour hold a very big majority in this seat, and its unlikely to disappear in this election. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Khalid Mahmood M.P.

Birmingham, Selly Oak: 2010 – Labour Hold – Steve McCabe

Another tight race in a Birmingham seat between Labour and the Tories. Labour did though come out on top. This election will see Labour increase their majority even further away from The Tories.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Steve McCabe M.P.

Birmingham, Yardley: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – John Hemming M.P.

Opinion polls say that the Liberal Democrats will remarkably hold this seat, despite many people believing that this will dip back towards Labour. Rather surprising, but I’ll take it none the less.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – John Hemming M.P.

Conservative Sajid Javid

Conservative Sajid Javid

Bromsgrove: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sajid Javid M.P.

The Culture Secretary For Media & Sport is likely to hang on to this seat for another five years, and if the Tories lose the election, put him in the limelight for Leadership material.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sajid Javid M.P. (Secretary Of State For Culture, Media & Sport)

Burton: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Andrew Griffiths

The Tories gained this from Labour in the last election, and while they might not increase their majority, I think they’ll still keep hold of the seat by a good margin. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Griffiths M.P.

Cannock Chase: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Aidan Burley

The Tories also gained this seat from Labour in the last election. But opinion polls say that this will return to Labour in this election by a good margin.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Janos Toth

Coventry North East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Bob Ainsworth M.P.

Ainsworth steps down in this seat to allow someone new in. And with this being a very safe Labour seat, I can’t see Labour losing this.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Colleen Fletcher

Coventry North West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Geoffrey Robinson M.P.

This seat has been a Labour hold since 74. And with Robinson having been in this seat since the 76 by election, I don’t see this going away.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Geoffrey Robinson M.P.

Coventry South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim Cunningham M.P.

Labour will likely hold the seat given that they have had it since 1997, the seat’s inception.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jim Cunningham M.P.

Dudley North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Austin M.P.

This was a very close seat in the last election, with Labour only just winning. Opinion polls give Labour a somewhat bigger lead this time around, so its likely Labour can make this a stronger seat this time around. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ian Austin M.P.

Dudley South: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Chris Kelly

The Tories managed to steal this seat from Labour in the last election. An opinion puts The Tories a number of points ahead, rather than just being a straight out lead. Could be a hold, but it’ll be close. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mike Wood

Halesowen & Rowley Regis: 2010 – Conservative Gain – James Morris

Much like Dudley South, The Tories took this seat from Labour in the last election. However, two opinion polls put Labour in the lead here, so its likely this seat will return to the red corner in this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephanie Peacock

Hereford & South Herefordshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jesse Norman

The Tories had a challenge with the Lib Dems in the last election, just getting the win. With the Lib Dem vote collapsing in this election, The Tories will very much hold this seat comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jesse Norman M.P.

North Herefordshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Bill Wiggin

It’s the same situation with the previous seat. An increased majority this time around, no question. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Bill Wiggin M.P.

Kenilwroth & Southam: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Wright

A good margin over the Lib Dems The Tories have in this seat. And with the Lib Dems losing votes, The Tories will hold this for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Wright M.P.  (Attorney General For England & Wales) (Advocate General For Northern Ireland)

Lichfield: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Michael Fabricant M.P.

With the Lib Dems losing votes, the Tories will hold this seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Michael Fabricant M.P.

Michael Fabricant

Michael Fabricant

Ludlow: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Philip Dunne M.P.

The Tories have good mileage from The Lib Dems, and with the LD vote heading down, it makes this seat much more comfortable.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Philip Dunne M.P. (Minister For Defence Equipment, Support & Technology)

Meriden: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Caroline Spelman

With a majority over 16,000, its extremely unlikely for the Tories to lose this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Caroline Spelman M.P.

Newcastle-Under-Lyme: 2010 – Labour Hold – Paul Farrelly M.P.

Quite close in the last election, but Labour had the edge. Seeing as this has been a long Labour hold, It will remain red for this election. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Paul Farrelly M.P.

Nuneaton: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Marcus Jones

This switch returned blue after eighteen years as a Labour seat. Opinion polls say that it will quickly return to Labour, but only with a 3% lead.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Vicky Fowler

Redditch: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Karen Lumley

A Tory gain that everyone saw coming, given how controversial the Labour candidate was.  Opinion polls also say that this will not return to Labour, and will likely remain blue for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Karen Lumley M.P.

Rugby: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mark Pawsey

The Tories took this seat firmly away from Labour with a 6,000 majority. I think the Tories will either strengthen their majority, or it will go down slightly.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Pawsey M.P.

Shrewsbury & Atcham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Daniel Kawczynski M.P.

The Lib Dem vote will fall very hard, allowing the Tories to win this with ease.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Daniel Kawczynski M.P.

North Shropshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Owen Paterson M.P.

Even if the Lib Dem vote wasn’t going down, the Tories would still hold this seat, as they have down since 83.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Owen Paterson M.P.

Solihull: 2010  – Liberal Democrat Hold – Lorely Burt M.P.

Two Opinion polls have put the Tories ahead in this seat, therefore making The Lib Dems much more weaker in this region in the process.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Julian Knight

Stafford: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jeremy Lefroy

The Tories won this seat in the last election. Opinion polls say that they will likely hang onto the seat and increase their voting share.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Lefroy M.P.

Staffordshire Moorlands: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Karen Bradley

I can see the Tories holding this seat by increasing their majority off Lib Dem votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Karen Bradley M.P. (Parliamentary Undersecretary Of State For Modern Slavery & Organised Crime)

South Staffordshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gavin Williamson

Tories could increase their lead in this seat quite well according to polls.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gavin Williamson M.P. (Parliamentary Private Secretary To The Prime Minister)

Stoke-On-Trent Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tristram Hunt

A Labour hold since 1950. A pretty safe bet this isn’t going anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tristram Hunt M.P.  (Shadow Secretary Of State For Education)

Tristram Hunt

Tristram Hunt

Stoke-On-Trent North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Joan Walley M.P.

Walley will step down in this election to allow someone else the chance. Likely to win will be Labour’s Ruth Smeeth, given that this is another safe Labour seat for years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ruth Smeeth

Stoke-On-Trent South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Robert Flello M.P.

Another long term Labour seat in Stoke. This is likely to stay red.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Robert Flello M.P.

Stone: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Bill Cash M.P.

A high vote share from the Tories in this seat assures them another five years in this area. Predicted Winner- Conservative Hold – Bill Cash M.P.

Stourbridge: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Margot Jones

The Tories won this seat in 2010 via a close result. Its likely they will keep it as Labour do not have the momentum to win it back. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Margot Jones M.P.

Stratford-On-Avon: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nadhim Zahawi

A Tory hold since 1997 and with a prolific new emerging member of the party, I doubt this will turn red.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nadhim Zahawi M.P.

Sutton Coldfield: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Mitchell M.P.

Andrew Mitchell is a prolific member of the Tories, and name value alone will keep him in the seat. Plus the lib dem vote will drop.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Mitchell M.P.

Tamworth: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Christopher Pincher

A gain from Labour in 2010 and will likely stay blue this time round.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Christopher Pincher M.P.

Telford: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Wright M.P.

A close contest in 2010, but seeing as this seat has a Labour history, it will very much stay red.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Wright M.P.

Walsall North: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Winnick M.P.

Winnick has held this seat since 1979, and will likely hold it for another five years. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Winnick M.P.

Walsall South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Valerie Vaz

A Labour hold since 1974 which isn’t going red anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Valerie Vaz M.P.

Warley: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Spellar M.P.

A huge Labour majority here in this seat. Unlikely to change.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – John Spellar M.P. (Shadow Minister For Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs)

Warwick & Leamington: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Chris White

A tight seat in 2010 with the Conservatives winning it from Labour. An opinion poll puts the Tories ahead, but only just. So perhaps this will stay blue a little while longer.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Chris White M.P.

North Warwickshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Dan Byles

With only a majority of 54 in 2010, the Tories really need to pull weight to keep this seat. However, opinion polls say that Labour will retake this seat back. Maybe with a bigger majority perhaps.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Mike O Brien

West Bromwich East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Watson M.P.

Watson has had his fair bit of publicity in the last five years. Most of it fighting Murdoch. He’s built himself a little profile which might keep him on for another five years. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tom Watson M.P.

West Bromwich West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Adrian Bailey M.P.

Labour have a comfortable lead in this seat, one that is unlikely to disappear.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Adrian Bailey M.P. (Chairman Of The Business, Innovation & Skills Select Committee)

Wolverhampton North East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Emma Reynolds

Only once has this seat turned to the Tories and that was in Margaret Thatcher’s third election victory in 1987. Cannot see this turning blue again. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Emma Reynolds M.P. (Shadow Minister For Housing)

Wolverhampton South East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Pat McFadden M.P.

A huge majority held here by Labour which isn’t disappearing anytime soon. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Pat McFadden M.P. (Shadow Minister For Europe)

Wolverhampton South West: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Paul Uppal

A Tory gain in 2010 in what is a very strong Labour city. However, polls say that this will turn red again this election. Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Rob Marris

Worchester: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Robin Walker

Two opinion polls say both Labour & The Tories will win this seat. It’s a tough one to call, but I reckon The Tories will hold this seat for another five years. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Robin Walker M.P.

Mid Worcestershire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Peter Luff M.P.

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nigel Huddleston

Nigel Huddleston; Parliamentary Candidate for Mid Worcestershire (Conservatives)

Nigel Huddleston; Parliamentary Candidate for Mid Worcestershire (Conservatives)

West Worcestershire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Harriett Baldwin

The tories hold a comfortable majority over Labour in this seat, and given the polls between Labour & The Tories are neck & neck, its unlikely this will swing anywhere

but blue. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Harriet Baldwin M.P.

The Wrekin: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Pritchard M.P.

The Tories hold a clear margin over Labour in this seat. Doubt this will change colours.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Pritchard M.P.

Wyre Forest: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mark Garnier

Garnier won this seat from Richard Taylor in the last election after 9 years of the Health Concern party being in this seat. Some may say Taylor is too old for such a task at 80 years old. The Tories might hold this, but then again, the NHS message could win round voters to Taylor’s cause once again. Its hard to say, but I’ll risk it and say Richard Taylor will win again.

Predicted Winner – National Health Action Gain – Richard Taylor

West Midlands Prediction:

Labour – 29 Seats

Conservatives – 28 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 1 Seat

National Health Action – 1 Seat

Total Seat Predictions:

Conservative Party – 178 Seats / Labour Party – 123 Seats / SNP – 53 Seats / Liberal Democrats – 10 Seats / DUP – 9 Seats / Sinn Fein – 5 Seats / Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats / SDLP – 3 Seats / UKIP – 2 Seats / Green – 1 Seat / Independent – 1 Seat / National Health Action – 1 Seat / Speaker – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

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Predicting The Seats: Scotland

 

Edinburgh Castle

Scotland is a huge talking point and may prove to be Labour’s downfall if polls are to be correct. For a long time, Scotland has voted Labour, adding the cherry on Tony Blair’s huge cake for eight years of his premiership, as well as being key to his weaker majority in 2005. They remained mostly in Labour’s hand in the last election with 41 seats, with the Liberal Democrats holding 11 seats. The SNP at the time only had 6 seats, with Conservative only one. Oh boy are people talking a different tune five years later. Following a landslide election victory in 2011, The SNP have only grown and grown, now unofficially the third largest party in the UK. Last year’s Independence Referendum has revived Scottish politics for a new generation, and given the Scottish people a wakeup call about the future of their country. This election is going to be important: Important for the SNP; Important for Labour; but most of all: Important for Scotland.

Aberdeen North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Frank Doran M.P.

Doran steps down at this seat to allow Labour MSP Richard Baker a chance of promotion. However the SNP surge will hit Aberdeen pretty hard, with this chance possibly obtaining over 40% of the vote share. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Kirsty Blackman

Aberdeen South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Anne Begg M.P.

Much like Aberdeen North, Aberdeen South is likely to have a huge swing towards the SNP and take out a number of established Labour M.Ps in the process.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Callum McCaig

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Sir Robert Smith M.P.

Opinion Polls say that this will be a SNP win in the polls, having over 10% lead over the Lib Dems.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stuart Donaldson

Airdrie & Shotts: 2010 – Labour Hold – Pamela Nash

Opinion polls put the SNP a couple of points ahead of Labour, proving that this national swing towards the nationalist party is no poll error.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Neil Gray

Angus: 2010 – SNP Hold – Mike Weir M.P

One of the parties more safer seats, held since its inception in 1997. Weir has been the MP since 2001, and will likely increase his majority by a huge margin.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Mike Weir M.P.

Argyll & Bute: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Alan Reid M.P.

A tightly fought seat in the last election, but has always been a Lib Dem hold. However, the tides could change as the SNP surge sweeps the country, and this maybe another Lib Dem casualty.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Brendan O`Hara

Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sandra Osborne M.P.

Opinion polls put the SNP very much ahead of Labour, so its likely to turn yellow on May 7th.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Corri Wilson

Central Ayrshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Brian Donohoe M.P.

Another seat destined to turn Yellow as opinion polls have the SNP strongly leading this seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Philippa Whitford

North Ayrshire & Arran: 2010 – Labour Hold – Katy Clark M.P.

The SNP surge will be large in this seat as Labour set to lose another M.P. to the nationalists.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Patricia Gibson

Banff & Buchan: 2010 – SNP Hold – Eilidh Whiteford M.P.

Alex Salmond’s seat for 23 years before Eilidh Whiteford took over in the last election. Again, like Angus, this majority will rocket into the high fifties, and become one of the SNP’s safest seats.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Eilidh Whiteford M.P.

Michael Moore MP

Michael Moore MP

Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Michael Moore M.P

A Scottish seat down south which will be another competitive one. Polls say that the Conservatives will actually win this seat, with the SNP a close second. I’ll take that as proof enough, even if it’s a bit shaky. And with a MSP going to Westminster, it triggers a Scottish Parliament by election in the process.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – John Lamont MSP

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – John Thurso M.P.

The drop in Liberal Democrat support will be huge in Scotland, given that the referendum adding fuel to the fire. The SNP will likely win this seat comfortably thanks to disillusioned Lib Dem voters.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Paul Monaghan

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Clarke M.P.

This is how big the SNP surge is going to be. This seat has been a Labour heartland for a long time, yet opinion polls give the SNP a 7% lead in this seat. Labour are going to be in for a bruising.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Phil Boswell

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gregg McClymont M.P.

Opinion polls say that this will be another seat that falls away from Labour. One poll has the SNP 18% over Labour. This surge may be massive in Scotland come May the 7th.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stuart McDonald

Dumfries & Galloway: 2010 – Labour Hold – Russell Brown M.P.

This will be a tough contest between three parties. Labour held this seat in the election, but expect the Conservatives to do well here. But not enough to stop the SNP surge as an opinion poll puts the SNP 4% ahead of the Tories.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Richard Arkless

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Mundell M.P.

The only Tory seat in Scotland, which is now ready to turn yellow if opinion polls are correct. The SNP may take this seat away from The Conservatives.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Emma Harper

East Dunbartonshire: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Jo Swinson M.P.

East Dunbartonshire was a firm NO in the referendum, but polls put the SNP very far ahead. Looks like Swinson & The Lib Dems will suffer huge in Scotland.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – John Nicolson

West Dunbartonshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gemma Doyle

West Dunbartonshire was another YES area during the referendum. An opinion poll put the SNP on 47% in this seat, and given the surge, I can’t see this being wrong.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Martin Docherty

Dundee East: 2010 – SNP Hold – Stewart Hosie M.P.

Steward Hosie

Steward Hosie

The Deputy Leader has held the seat since 2005 and will likely increase his lead, and prove to be a vital voice in Westminster and a guidance to new M.Ps in the commons.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Stewart Hosie M.P. (SNP Deputy Leader)

Dundee West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim McGovern M.P.

Given that Dundee voted YES in the referendum last year, I have no doubt Dundee West will be one of the SNP’s biggest gains.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Chris Law

Dunfermline & West Fife: 2010 – Labour Gain – Thomas Docherty

This will be one of the very few Labour seats that stays red in this election. The SNP surge will hit here, but not enough to turn the tide perhaps. Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Thomas Docherty M.P.

East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow: 2010 – Labour Hold – Michael McCann

Much like other grey seats in Scotland, We can only judge the result by wide polls only. However, this is my constituency and I have an inkling that the SNP will take this seat with ease.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Lisa Cameron

East Lothian: 2010 – Labour Hold – Fiona O Donnell

Opinion polls put The SNP ahead in this seat thanks to the huge surge since the referendum. Expect Labour’s Fiona O Donnell to lose this seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – George Kerevan

Edinburgh East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sheila Gilmore

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Tommy Sheppard

Edinburgh North & Leith: 2010 – Labour Hold – Mark Lazarowicz M.P.

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Deidre Brock

Edinburgh South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Murray

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Neil Hay

Edinburgh South West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alastair Darling M.P.

Alistair Darling during the Scottish independence referendum

Alistair Darling during the Scottish independence referendum

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow. Darling steps down after a long controversial political career, including leading the campaign opposing Independence last September. Perhaps that took far too much out of him, and is now fleeing the wind.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Joanna Cherry

Edinburgh West: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mike Crockart M.P.

Edinburgh was a firm NO last September, but momentum has been moving towards the SNP. This will be one of the seats in the capital to turn yellow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Michelle Thomson

Falkirk: 2010 – Labour Hold – Eric Joyce M.P.

Eric Joyce has had a tough couple of years, resulting in losing his seat as a Labour M.P. and becoming a “independent” in the process. He will not be standing in this election, and with the SNP surge moving across Scotland, its likely this will fall yellow too.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – John McNally

North East Fife: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Menzies Campbell M.P.

Campbell steps down at this election, hoping to allow another Lib Dem candidate into Westminster. However, an opinion poll puts the SNP some leagues ahead in this seat, which could likely see an SNP win here.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stephen Gethins

Glasgow Central: 2010 – Labour Hold – Anas Sarwar

Glasgow was a major YES city in the referendum, and has been key to the SNP surge. I can definitely see a huge swing towards the SNP in this seat, as well as a huge drop in Labour support.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Alison Thewliss

Glasgow East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Margaret Curran

Very much another heavy YES area during the referendum, this could be another seat that falls to the SNP, giving Margaret Curran another humiliating defeat after 2008.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Natalie McGarry

Glasgow North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ann McKechin M.P.

The North might be slightly tougher to win despite the huge referendum momentum. But opinion polls say this is heading towards the SNP, so its likely going to be another gain in Glasgow.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Patrick Grady

Glasgow North East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Willie Bain M.P.

Widely believed to be the most left wing seat in the country, You’d think this would be easy pickings for the SNP. Yet an opinion poll has Labour here a large lead over the SNP, and will likely be one of the seats Labour can hold in this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Willie Bain M.P.

Glasgow North West: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Robertson M.P.

Given the momentum in Glasgow during the referendum, this will be a seat likely heading towards the SNP.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Carol Monaghan

Glasgow South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Harris M.P.

Glasgow was crucial for the YES movement, particularly in this seat. Judging by opinion polls, I reckon this seat will move to the SNP.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Stewart McDonald

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon

Glasgow South West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Davidson M.P.

Davidson is a controversial M.P. whose comments over the years have angered and offended nationalists. The surge in SNP support post referendum maybe enough to finally oust Davidson out of his seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Chris Stephens

Glenrothes: 2010 – Labour Hold – Lindsay Roy M.P.

Another misty seat to call. The SNP surge may have an impact on this seat hugely. Opinion polls put this as a close seat, with the SNP just edging ahead. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Peter Grant

Gordon: 2010 – Lib Dem Hold – Malcolm Bruce M.P.

Malcolm Bruce steps down at this election, and is hopeful his successor Christine Jardine will replace him. But alas, Opinion Polls point to one Alex Salmond to take the seat and add it to the SNP list.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Alex Salmond (First Minister Of Scotland 2007-14)

Alex Salmond will confidently secure

Alex Salmond will confidently secure the Scottish seat of Gordon

Inverclyde: 2011BE – Labour Hold – Iain McKenzie

Since the 2011 by election, Inverclyde has become a crucial seat in the battle between Labour & The SNP. Only 0.2 percent separated both Yes & No in the referendum, and with the momentum post referendum going to the SNP, its likely this will turn yellow on May the 7th.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Ronnie Cowan

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Danny Alexander M.P.

The SNP Surge will be huge, and one of the big casualties will be Lib Dem seats. Already expecting to do badly across the whole of the UK, Scotland will feel the sting that much worse. Recurring opinion polls do favourably towards the SNP, and Alexander may find himself out of a job.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Drew Hendry

Kilmarnock & Loudoun: 2010 – Labour Hold – Cathy Jamieson

The SNP surge will hit here strongly and oust Labour from this seat.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Alan Brown

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gordon Brown M.P.

An opinion poll has made this seat an eye opener of how big this SNP surge is. Five years ago, this was the seat of the Prime Minister. Now, its just another seat in the major wave of SNP support.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Roger Mullin

Lanark & Hamilton East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jimmy Hood M.P.

An area in which SNP has grown hugely. Labour will not survive this seat it is very likely.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Angela Crawley

Linlithgow & East Falkirk: 2010 – Labour Hold – Michael Connarty M.P.

The SNP will hit this seat hard and will likely take it from Labour.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Martyn Day

Livingston: 2010 – Labour Hold – Graeme Morrice

Opinion polls have this seat heading towards the SNP with a large share. This could likely swing yellow come May the 7th. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Hannah Bardell

Midlothian: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Hamilton M.P.

Always been a Labour seat for many years, but now the SNP could take this seat away from Labour and build on a strong block in Westminster. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Owen Thompson

Moray: 2010 – SNP Hold – Angus Robertson M.P.

One of the SNP’s most senior figures, and has been one of the most important in regards to Westminster. Again, he serves in a very safe SNP seat, and is destined to be even more safe after this election.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Angus Robertson M.P.

Motherwell & Wishaw: 2010 – Labour Hold – Frank Roy M.P.

This has long been a Labour stronghold throughout its entire existence. However, an opinion poll puts the SNP at 50%, making this one of Labour’s biggest losses on May the 7th. Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Marion Fellows

Na h-Eileanan an lar: 2010 – SNP Hold – Angus MacNeil M.P.

A small seat in Scotland with a small electorate. None the less, most of them win turn to SNP and MacNeil will have a safe majority.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Angus MacNeil M.P.

Angus MacNeil

Angus MacNeil

Perth & North Perthshire: 2010 – SNP Hold – Pete Wishart M.P.

Another safe seat for the SNP which is bound to become even safer. Wishart is another senior SNP MP who maybe helpful for newcomers, and prove to be a key voice in the next parliament.

Predicted Winner – SNP Hold – Pete Wishart M.P.

Ochil & South Perthshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Gordon Banks M.P.

In the last election, the SNP share was quite close to the Labour share, making this a long target for the SNP in many elections. Following the referendum, and a high surge towards the SNP, this is a seat that will likely be won by the SNP.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh

Orkney & Shetland: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Alastair Carmichael

Amazingly, despite the drop of support for the Lib Dems, this is likely to be one of the seats that will hold a Lib Dem M.P. Good news for Carmichael, as he maybe ready to make a leadership challenge if Clegg is badly beaten.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Alastair Carmichael (Secretary Of State For Scotland)

Alistair Carmichael

Alistair Carmichael

Paisley & Renfrewshire North: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim Sheridan M.P.

This is a tough one to call. Opinion polls put this seat neck and neck with Labour & The SNP. This is where these series of articles get tough and it comes down to natural luck. The SNP surge is huge, but is it that huge? And if Labour are going to save any seats, is this one of them? I’m thinking Labour might just sneak this, but only just.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jim Sheridan M.P,

Paisley & Renfrewshire South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Douglas Alexander

This is a seat gaining a lot of coverage, more or less due to the opinion polls that puts young SNP member Mhairi Black ahead of established cabinet member Douglas Alexander. If polls are correct, we could see one of the biggest upsets of the election, and one of the best representatives of young people in Westminster.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Mhairi Black

East Renfrewshire: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jim Murphy M.P.

Will the leader of the Scottish Labour Party Jim Murphy lose his seat?

Will the leader of the Scottish Labour Party Jim Murphy lose his seat?

This is another seat getting a lot of coverage. Jim Murphy is Scottish Labour Leader at the present moment, and will contest in the Holyrood Election to become First Minister. However, opinion polls have put the SNP ahead by a sizeable margin. This maybe an uncomfortable night for Jim Murphy if polls are correct.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Kirsten Oswald

Ross, Skye & Lochaber: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Charles Kennedy M.P.

The former Lib Dem leader has been in the commons for a long time, fighting many elections and playing a crucial importance to the party’s history. However the SNP surge will hurt opposing parties badly. In this seat, Kennedy may finally lose his last election.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Ian Blackford

Rutherglen & Hamilton West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Tom Greatrex

A difficult seat to call as one does not know how huge the SNP surge will be. Judging this by the limited polling available, It seems this maybe a seat Labour can hold. But its difficult to say.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Tom Greatrex M.P.

Stirling: 2010 – Labour Hold – Anne McGuire M.P.

McGuire steps down to hopefully let candidate Johanna Boyd into Parliament. But given this huge surge in SNP support, this is likely to swing to the SNP. Opinion polls say that SNP have momentum in this seat, and that is likely true.

Predicted Winner – SNP Gain – Steven Paterson

Scotland Seat Prediction:

Scottish National Party – 53 Seats

Scottish Labour Party – 4 Seats

Scottish Liberal Democrats – 1 Seat

Scottish Conservatives – 1 Seat

Total Predictions thus far:

Conservatives – 150 Seats / Labour – 94 Seats / SNP – 53 Seats / Liberal Democrats – 9 Seats / DUP – 9 Seats / Sinn Fein – 5 Seats / Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats / SDLP – 3 Seats / UKIP – 2 Seats / Green – 1 Seat / Independent – 1 Seat / Speaker – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

Do we get the politics we deserve?

Ed Miliband talks to the people of Brighton about the 'cost of living crisis' in 2014

Ed Miliband talks to the people of Brighton about the ‘cost of living crisis’ in 2014

You reap what you sow is a common metaphor for British politics of today!

Politics in Britain has been going through a crisis with its relationship with the public. Members of the public constantly complain about the lack of information, about negative campaigning, and about the political mainstream treating them as fools dolling out rhetoric when facts are necessary.  However, I feel that a country receives the politics they deserve, and vote for. The British public seem to want answers, but don’t want to do any of the work which would enable them to gather them in a credible way. We’re too lazy to look, so we berate politicians for not being our teachers.

Why aren’t people looking at the policies in detail? Partly because the media publish stories of the policies, which means many people can gather bite-sized political snippets over a longer period of time. One example is the announcement by Ed Miliband on housing. Over two days Ed has announced caps on rent rises on the new three year tenancies, and his pledge to build 200,000 new homes a year until 2020. The Guardian devoted articles and analysis to this piece of ‘news’. Yet it was in Labour’s youth manifesto all along. This policy was nothing new, yet it caused a furore.

People aren’t looking for answers; they want to be spoon fed them. On Question time last week, a man was berating the panel for not giving him answers. This was in relation to the latest IFS report on the parties’ fiscal plans. However, what came next was mind boggling. The man hadn’t read the IFS report merely the headline, when asked about it he couldn’t answer coherently. Newsnight devoted a whole segment of the programme to asking people if they had bothered to read the manifestos. They could only find one person who had bothered to read a portion of some of the manifestos. There is an incredible credulity in our society at the moment; people are voting for parties but more often than not they haven’t read any policy documents.

Have we become a nation that is spoon-fed our politics?

Have we become a nation that is spoon-fed our politics?

This culture of spoon-feeding has created a public which doesn’t know what policies actually are before they hate them. One example of this is of student fees. Student fees were widely reviled; many claimed it would destroy higher education and price out poorer students. Many young people wanting to go to University themselves now claimed they could no longer afford it, and some incredulously still do. The bile and hatred which was spewed out was like something at a tea party rally, unenlightened, self-obsessed, and ugly. The results of the tuition fee experiment have embarrassed the NUS, and student politics as a whole. More poorer students than ever before are going to University, and the re-payment threshold is higher, if you earn below £21,000 then you pay nothing back. The tuition fees debacle is just one of the policy areas in which many are ignorant. Indeed it isn’t just students, who fall asleep at the policy wheel, but it is a sad indictment of British society that even those who are supposed to be the brightest and best got it so drastically wrong.

If we want a better politics, more informed rational debates, then we need a more informed rational public. One cannot go without the other. There is a reason why George Bush was elected President, and why so many people in America still seem to believe that Iraq played a part in 9/11. The American public stopped caring about facts of policy, and went for the emotional bond of a hapless idiot who was woefully out of his depth. Surely, it is only a matter of time before Britain elects out own George Bush, and completes the cycle of election by hysterical outrage based on premises which are without foundation.

By Sam Mace, Senior Writer for Daily Political View.

Campaigning – the long and short of it!

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail from Land's End to John O'Groats.

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail from Land’s End to John O’Groats.

Are you sick of it all yet? It’s all over the news and in the papers. It might even be the topic of conversation down the local. What am I talking about? The General Election of course, which is now coming to an end as the nation goes to the ballot boxes tomorrow (thankfully?!).

We’ve thus far endured the ‘long campaign’, which officially began on the 19th December and ran up until the dissolution of Parliament – 25 days before the election – which in this case was the 30th March, and we’re now firmly into the ‘short campaign’, which goes right up until the election.

For a lot of people, the campaign so far might not have bothered them. According to the Electoral Reform Society, over half of the seats being contested in the election – 368 seats containing approximately 25 million people – are deemed to be safe, that meaning they are unlikely to change parties. Here is a breakdown of how many seats each of the main parties have, and how many of their seats are safe –

– The Conservatives have 303 seats, 186 of which are deemed safe.

– Labour have 257 seats, 151 of which are deemed safe.

– The Liberal Democrats have 56 seats, 7 of which are deemed safe.

Conservative Zac Goldsmith is fighting for re-election in his safe seat of Richmond Park.

Conservative Zac Goldsmith is one of the lucky ones fighting for re-election in his safe seat of Richmond Park.

If you live in one of the marginal seats, then expect more leaflets, more canvassers, and more political presence in the area, be it via posters, or campaigners in the streets asking you for just a couple of minutes to discuss the upcoming election. If you’re really lucky, and you live in a really marginal seat that has been targeted by a party, then you can expect all of the above, but with even more money thrown at you, and even ministerial visits.

As things stand, and despite all of the campaigning, no party has managed to build a significant and consistent lead. Only the SNP appear to be making significant gains, but they’re only standing in 59 of the United Kingdom’s 650 seats.

Let’s not forget though that the polls are far from reliable. Just because they say the SNP could win all 59 Scottish seats doesn’t mean they will. It could be the case that they only keep the 6 they currently have. Likewise, it could be that despite most polls signalling a hung parliament, one party could yet win overall. A Labour majority would depend on the SNPs performance and the electorate ignoring the possibility of Ed Miliband being Prime Minister, while a Conservative majority would require them to increase their share of the vote, a feat not even Margaret Thatcher could achieve while in office.

Many Conservatives are hoping for a 1992 type election, one where they went into the election 6% behind in the polls, but came out winners. For the incumbent governing party to be this close in the polls is an achievement in itself, and so it could well be that they do come out as winners. Or maybe 2015 might be the new 1974. Not that there will be two elections (although let’s not rule anything out, these are unpredictable times after all), but rather Harold Wilson increasing Labours vote share in the October election, having formed a minority government by being the largest party in the hung parliament following the February election.

With so much at state, expect more vigorous campaigning. Expect Labour to say they are the only party who can form a strong government, while expect the Conservatives to continue the vote Labour, get SNP rhetoric.

While UKIP appear to be faltering, they are still attracting votes. Significantly, they are taking just as many – if not more – votes from Labour as they are the Conservatives, although you could argue that the votes they are costing Labour are more significant as they are allowing the Conservatives a chance in the more marginal northern seats.

On the bright side, it’ll all be over after May 7th, and normality will be restored until the next election. However soon that may be…

By Daniel Dean, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

Predicting the Seats: South East England

 

Big_Ben_Clock

We shift now to the south east of England. Her the Conservatives have a chance to defend their ground, whilst Labour and UKIP are set to seize some surprise seats, and hopefully for the Liberal Democrats to hold onto as many seats as possible. What will happen for the Greens and the current Speaker John Bercow?

Aldershot: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gerald Howarth MP

We start with a pretty strong safe Tory seat in Aldershot. Howarth has been the MP since 97, and will likely have another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gerald Howarth MP

Arundel and South Downs: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nick Herbert MP

With the Lib Dem vote going down, I can see the Conservatives increasing their lead in this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nick Herbert MP

Ashford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Damian Green MP

Holding a majority of over 17,000 is an impressive feat for the Conservatives in this seat. Unlikely to see it drop.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Damian Green MP

Aylesbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Lidington MP

A Tory hold since 1924. Lidington has been the MP since 1992 and will likely serve the next five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Lidington MP (Minister Of State For Europe)

Banbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Tony Baldry MP

Baldry stands down at this election, in what will likely be making way for Victoria Prentis to take the seat and continue the Tory run.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Victoria Prentis

Basingstoke: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Maria Miller MP

Maria Miller didn’t have a great two years as Culture Secretary, ending in awkward fashion. However, she will easily retain her seat for another five years. Perhaps she might get a new cabinet position also if the Tories win, or perhaps a Deputy Leadership bid.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Maria Miller MP

Remember her?

Maria Miller MP, remember her?

Beaconsfield: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Dominic Grieve MP

Might be a fight between UKIP and the Tories, but I can see the Tories will win this.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Dominic Grieve MP

Bexhill & Battle: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Gregory Baker MP

I can’t see the Tories losing this seat, given a huge majority here, and the Lib Dems shredding votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Huw Merriman

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nick Gibb M.P.

As the Lib Dem vote goes down, UKIP’s vote goes up. Never the less, The Tories maintain their hold on the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nick Gibb MP (Minister Of State For Education)

Bracknell: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Dr. Phillip Lee MP

A Tory seat since 1997, I cannot see this being lost to another party, particularly UKIP.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Dr. Phillip Lee MP

Brighton Kemptown: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Simon Kirby MP

A swing seat for a number of elections now, with both Labour seats disappearing to two different parties. Its also a very crowded election here too. Opinion Polls say that Labour will likely take this seat back, but what about the another seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Nancy Platts

Brighton Pavilion: 2010 – Green Gain – Caroline Lucas MP

Caroline Lucas has done a very good job in the last five years serving the local seat. Because of Labour’s poor performance, the Greens are likely to hold the seat. But part of me also thinks that Caroline has done a convincing job in getting the locals round on her side. Green politics might be growing in this settlement, but will it hang around?

Predicted Winner – Green Hold – Caroline Lucas MP

Upon entering Parliament in 2010, Caroline Lucas became the first ever Green MP. Will she be re-elected this year?

Upon entering Parliament in 2010, Caroline Lucas became the first ever Green MP. Will she be re-elected this year?

Buckingham: 2010 – Speaker Hold – John Bercow MP

Its tradition that parties do not contest the Speaker’s seat. Unless UKIP provide a shock twist, Bercow will return for another five years as Speaker.

Predicted Winner – Speaker Hold – John Bercow

Canterbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Julian Brazier MP

Despite a smaller majority than other seats, The Tories will likely hang on to the seat, with an established M.P in the area.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Julian Brazier MP

Chatham & Aylesford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Tracey Crouch

The Tories managed to steal this seat off Labour in the last election, But holding it is going to be a challenge. But according to polls, its likely the seat will stay with the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Tracey Crouch MP

Chesham & Amersham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Cheryl Gillan MP

The majority of this seat is the same as some total of votes of winning seats in this country. That is how safe this seat is for the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Cheryl Gillan MP

Chichester: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Tyrie MP

Very much another safe Tory seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Andrew Tyrie MP (Chairman of the Treasury Select Committee)

Crawley: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Henry Smith MP

Another swing seat which will be interesting to see. Smith won the seat in the last election following 13 years of Labour representation. This election, Smith will likely hang on to the seat according to opinion polls.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Henry Smith MP

Dartford: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Gareth Johnson MP

Another Tory gain from Labour. Tough win for Gareth Johnson, but he did manage to reclaim an old Tory seat. According to opinion polls, the Tories will hold the seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gareth Johnson MP

Dover: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Charlie Elphicke MP

This makes three in a row for Tory gains in the South. Elphicke beat Gwyn Prosser in 2010 to claim the seat, and with opinion polls, The Tories will hang on to the seat, but only by 4 percent. Might be tight.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Charlie Elphicke MP

Eastbourne: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Stephen Lloyd MP

Winning the seat in the last election via a tight result, don’t expect the Lib Dem to claim this back if this is a tight seat. The Tories may chop off enough votes over to the Tories to take back the seat after a five year blip.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Caroline Ansell

Mike Thornton is expected to retain his seat on May 7th.

Mike Thornton is expected to retain his seat on May 7th.

Eastleigh: 2013BE – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mike Thornton MP

The centre of a dramatic by-election two years ago, which saw the Liberal Democrats snatching a seat from the Tories grasp. Opinion polls also say that the seat will stay Lib Dem for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mike Thronton MP

Epsom & Ewell: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Chris Grayling MP

With a majority of over 15,000 in the last election, its likely that Chris Grayling will return to the House.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Chris Grayling MP (Secretary Of State For Justice/Lord Chancellor)

Esher & Walton: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Dominic Raab MP

A good strong majority in this seat which will likely either get bigger, or smaller if UKIP lifts things up.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Dominic Raab MP

Fareham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Hoban MP

With a Lib Dem dip in the region, the Tories will likely hold the seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Suella Fernandes

Faversham & Mid Kent: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Hugh Robertson MP

A majority over 17,000 will make a Tory hold certain.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Helen Whately

Folkestone & Hythe: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Damian Collins MP

Opinion polls say that Labour & UKIP will make huge increases, whilst seeing the Lib Dem vote drop. But still, The Tories are likely to hang onto the seat by a few percent.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Damian Collins M.P. (PPS To The Secretary Of State For Northern Ireland)

Gillingham & Rainham: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Rehman Chishti  MP

A close fought election in 2010 which saw the Tories oust Labour. The two main candidates will fight again for the seat, with Labour hoping to regain it once again. However, it is likely due to the sizeable majority, The Tories will hang on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Rehman Chishti MP

Gosport: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Caroline Dinenage MP

A huge majority held here, as well as the Lib Dem vote going down, will be confident enough for Local Tories in this seat to hold their seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Caroline Dinenage MP (Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS) to the Minister for Women & Equalities)

Gravesham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Adam Holloway MP

A strong Tory hold, with Labour a good distance away from ever gaining this seat back. With both parties neck and neck in national polls, its unlikely Labour will seize this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Adam Holloway MP

Guildford: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Anne Milton MP

An 8000 majority was the last gap between the Tories & Lib Dems in 2010. But with a fall in Lib Dem votes, the Tories will hold this seat comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Anne Milton MP (Vice Chamberlain Of The Household)

East Hampshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Damian Hinds MP

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception in 1983. Unlikely to change hands.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Damian Hinds MP

North East Hampshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – James Arbuthnot MP

Arbuthnot steps down at this election to make way for new blood. A safe Tory seat will likely see a new Tory candidate take this seat comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Ranil Jayawardena

North West Hampshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir George Young MP

Sir George Young

Sir George Young

Sir George steps down from this seat, very much like the twin seat above, allowing new blood to stand for the seat. Once again, this seat is a strong Tory hold, and is unlikely to change hands in this election.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Kit Malthouse (London AM for West Central)

Hastings & Rye: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Amber Rudd

Always a tight seat for many years. The Tories won this seat back from Labour, but look likely to lose it back according to opinion polls, back to Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Sarah Owen

Havant: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Willetts MP

A Tory hold since the seat’s inception. Willetts steps down this election and so the new Tory candidate could comfortably hold the seat for a further five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alan Mak

Henley: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Howell MP

A popular tory seat with Michael Hesseltine & Boris Johnson holding this seat in the past. Howell will likely hang on to the seat, given the drop in Lib Dem votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Howell MP

Horsham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Francis Maude MP

Maude steps down this election after 18 years of service. Given that this is another safe seat for the Conservatives, its unlikely that this will go away but Blue.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Quin

Hove: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Mike Weatherley MP

A swing seat in this region which could go either way. The Tories won this seat in 2010, but this seat could easily return to Labour. Opinion polls say Labour will win this one back comfortably.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Peter Kyle

Isle Of Wight: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Andrew Turner MP

The Tories hold a majority of over 10,000 over the Lib Dems. It is unlikely the Lib Dems can overturn this.

Predicted Winner-  Conservative Hold – Andrew Turner MP

Lewes: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Norman Baker MP

It’s not all doom and gloom. Polls say that this will be one of the safe seats for the Lib Dems in this region. Fingers crossed?

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Norman Baker MP

Theresa May

Theresa May

Maidenhead: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Theresa May MP

Given that Theresa May is a likely candidate for Conservative Leader if David Cameron loses the election, I can’t possibly see her lose this seat at all.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – R.T. Hon Theresa May MP (Home Secretary)

Maidstone & The Weald: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Helen Grant MP

Another strong Tory hold that will likely stay blue.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Helen Grant MP (Minister For Sport & Tourism)

Meon Valley: 2010 – Conservative Hold – George Hollingbery MP

Holding a 12,000 majority over the Lib Dems is a clear sign that this seat isn’t going anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – George Hollingbery MP

Milton Keynes North: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Mark Lancaster MP

Opinion polls say that the Tories will hang on to this seat for another five years with a declining Lib Dem vote.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Mark Lancaster MP (Lord Commissioner Of HM Treasury)

Milton Keynes South: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Iain Stewart

Another tight seat in the south which both Labour and the Conservatives could win. However, opinion polls call this to the Tories, but with a tight result.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Iain Stewart MP

Mole Valley: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Paul Beresford MP

A strong hold here for the Tories which is unlikely to disappear.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sir Paul Beresford MP

New Forest East: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Julian Lewis MP

With a dip in Lib Dem votes likely to happen here, the Tories will capture another five years by holding on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Julian Lewis MP

New Forest West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Desmond Swayne MP

Another strong Tory hold which will become even stronger with declining Lib Dem votes.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Desmond Swayne MP (Minister Of State For International Development)

Newbury: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Richard Benyon MP

A good strong Tory seat held since 2005, after winning it from the Lib Dems. Likely to remain a Tory seat given the drop in Lib Dem support.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Richard Benyon MP

Oxford East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Andrew Smith MP

With a Lib Dem voter dip, the Labour party will increase their lead in a very rare seat they hold in this region.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Andrew Smith MP

Nicola Blackwood MP

Nicola Blackwood MP

Oxford West & Abingdon: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Nicola Blackwood MP

A close result in the previous election in this seat. However, opinion Polls say that the Tories will cling on to this seat for a further five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nicola Blackwood MP

Portsmouth North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Penny Mordaunt MP

A Tory gain in the last election from an exhausted Labour party. With an election with no clear winner, polls say that this will stay Tory.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Penny Mordaunt M.P. (Parliamentary Under Secretary Of State, Department For Communities & Local Government)

Portsmouth South: 2013 Defection – Independent from Liberal Democrat – Mike Hancock MP

An opinion poll will take this independent seat towards the Conservatives, eliminating another Lib Dem seat from the region.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Flick Drummond

Reading East: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Rob Wilson MP

Given that the Tories have a comfortable majority, I cannot see this switching parties anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Rob Wilson MP (Minister For Civil Society)

Reading West: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Alok Sharma MP

A Tory gain here in the last election, which is likely to stay Tory for a further five years. Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alok Sharma M.P.

Reigate: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Crispin Blunt MP

Apart from a brief defection before the 97 election, this has been an extremely solid Tory seat, which doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Crispin Blunt MP

Rochester & Strood: 2014BE – UKIP Gain – Mark Reckless MP

Six Months ago this seat became UKIP’s 2nd official seat in Parliament thanks to another defection. However, opinion polls say that the Tories will take this one back, making Reckless’s brief run as UKIP MP a short lived one indeed.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Gain – Kelly Tolhurst

David Cameron with Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst

David Cameron with Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst

Romsey & Southampton North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Caroline Noakes MP

A win from the Lib Dems in a close contest was impressive for the Tories. It will be a slightly more relief with the drop in Lib Dem support, making this seat a much more comfortable hold.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Caroline Noakes MP

Runnymede & Weybridge: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Phillip Hammond MP

A senior member of the Tory cabinet won’t go away that easily. Not least with his name floating around for future leadership.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Phillip Hammond MP (Secretary Of State For Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs)

Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, in Lithuania

Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, in Lithuania

Sevenoaks: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Michael Fallon MP

Fallon has held this seat in 1997, and with a bigger profile in the cabinet, I cannot see him losing his seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Michael Fallon MP (Secretary Of State For Defence)

Sittingbourne & Sheppey: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Gordon Henderson MP

Another safe Tory seat. Unlikely for Labour to win it back so soon after they lost it.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Gordon Henderson MP

Slough: 2010 – Labour Hold – Fiona Mactaggart MP

Another one of the few strong Labour seats in this region, which will likely stay with Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Fiona Mactaggart MP

Southampton, Itchen: 2010 – Labour Hold – John Denham MP

Denham’s final election contest as a MP earned him his seat back, but only just. Recent opinion polls say that Labour will hang on to this seat again, with a new face representing the party.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Rowenna Davis

Southampton, Test: 2010 – Labour Hold – Alan Whitehead MP

Another good strong seat in the south for Labour. Unlikely to go blue.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Alan Whitehead MP

Spelthorne: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Kwasi Kwarteng MP

A very strong Tory seat that will get even stronger with the decline of Lib Dem support.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Kwasi Kwarteng MP

Kwasi Kwarteng

Kwasi Kwarteng

East Surrey: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sam Gyiamh MP

A comfortable Tory hold which will increase with the decline of the Lib Dems.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sam Gyiamh MP (Parliamentary Under Secretary Of State At The Department Of Education)

Surrey Heath: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Michael Gove MP

A senior figure in Cameron’s cabinet who is pretty well known. Unlikely he will be going anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Michael Gove MP (Government Chief Whip of the House Of Commons. Parliamentary Secretary To The Treasury)

South West Surrey: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Hunt MP

Another major figure in Cameron’s cabinet, which according to opinion polls will increase his lead over other parties.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jeremy Hunt MP (Secretary Of State For Health)

Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt

Mid Sussex: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Nicholas Soames MP

Soames has held this seat since 1997, as well as the seat being Tory since the seat’s creation. Unlikely to go towards another party.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nicholas Soames MP

North Thanet: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir Roger Gale MP

Another comfortable Tory hold not changing parties anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sir Roger Gale MP

South Thanet: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Laura Sandys MP

A big seat highlighted here as UKIP leader Nigel Farage looks set to take the seat from the Tories, finally breaking him away from Brussels after 16 years of service as a MEP. Opinion polls are mixed at best, some favouring UKIP and some favouring Tory. But if I’m honest, I think Nigel Farage will take this on name value and appeal as a fresh new face into the parliament.

Predicted Winner – UKIP Gain – Nigel Farage

Will Nigel Farage find himself in Parliament?

Will Nigel Farage find himself in Parliament?

Tonbridge & Malling: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Sir John Stanley MP

Again, another Tory stronghold which will stay Tory.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Sir John Stanley MP

Tunbridge Wells: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Greg Clark MP

With the Lib Dem vote dipping in this seat, the Tories will strengthen their lead in this seat.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Greg Clark MP (Minister Of State For Universities, Science & Cities)

Wantage: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Ed Vaizey MP

Vaizey won the seat back in 05 and has not lost it since. Polls say that he will hold the seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Ed Vaizey MP (Minister For Culture, Communications & Creative Industries)

Wealden: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Charles Hendry MP

A huge Tory majority held in this seat which will likely stay put.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Nusrat Ghani

Winchester: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Steve Brine MP

The last race in 2010 took the Tories and the Lib Dems pretty close to the wire. But like in other seats, the drop in Lib Dem support will make the Tories stronger.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Steve Brine MP

Windsor: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Adam Afriyie MP

Afriyie had a bit of press during Cameron’s premiership if you recall. There were rumours that he would contest for the leadership following declining poll numbers in opinion polls. If the Tories lose this election, we could see those rumours resurface and perhaps come to light. Either way, he’ll be back.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Adam Afriyie MP

David Cameron speaking at a Conservative Party conference

David Cameron

Witney: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Prime Minister David Cameron MP

Come on, it is the PM for god sake!

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Prime Minister David Cameron MP

Woking: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Jonathan Lord MP

Opinion polls say the Tories will increase their lead in Woking by a significant mile.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Jonathan Lord MP

Wokingham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – John Redwood MP

The Tories have held this seat since the inception, so its not going anywhere else but blue.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – John Redwood MP

East Worthing & Shoreham: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Tim Loughton MP

A comfortable majority in this seat that will not go away.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Tim Loughton MP

Worthing West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Peter Bottomley MP

A long serving MP who is set to last another five years more.

Predicted Winner – Peter Bottomley MP

Wycombe: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Steve Baker MP

Opinion polls say that this seat is very likely to stay with the Tories.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Steve Baker MP

New seat prediction from the current instalment:

Conservatives – 72 Seats / Labour – 7 Seats / Liberal Democrats- 2 Seats / UKIP – 1 Seat / Green Party – 1 Seat / Speaker – 1 Seat

Total seat prediction thus far:

Conservatives – 149 Seats

Labour – 90 Seats

DUP – 9 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 8 Seats

Sinn Fein – 5 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

SDLP – 3 Seats

UKIP – 2 Seats

Green – 1 Seat

Independent – 1 Seat

Speaker – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

Predicting the Seats: Northern Ireland

Scrabo Tower one of the many landmarks Northern Ireland has to offer.

Scrabo Tower one of the many landmarks Northern Ireland has to offer.

Let’s now look at a part of the UK in which polls and data have been few and far between: Northern Ireland. A part of the United Kingdom that has their own separate political parties, with similar ties in beliefs and positions. They also only have 18 seats, the smallest in all parts of the UK. The DUP have the highest with 8 seats, closely followed by Sinn Fein with 5. SDLP have three seats, whilst the Alliance have only one seat, with one independent seat in addition. With the uncertainly in England now looking ever more gloomy, a certain Labour stronghold in Wales, but a declining one in Scotland, what will Northern Ireland’s position be in this coming vote?

Antrim East: 2010 – DUP Hold – Sammy Wilson MP

The DUP seized this seat in the 2005 election, holding it again in 2010. It’s a good hold, and despite a rise in support for Sinn Fein in opinion polls, the DUP will likely hang on to this seat.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – Sammy Wilson MP

Antrim North: 2010 – DUP Hold – Ian Paisley Jr MP

A DUP seat since 1970 and held by the Paisley family since 1970. The family tradition keeps going for another five years.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – Ian Paisley Jr MP

Ian Paisley Jr

Ian Paisley Jr

Antrim South: 2010 – DUP Hold – William McCrea MP

A close fight in the last election which only just saw the DUP hold the seat. This leads to speculation that the UUP will retake this seat again this time round. However, the last opinion poll put the DUP in a good position, so its likely they will hang on to the seat.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – William McCrea MP

Belfast East: 2010 – Alliance Gain – Naomi Long MP

Opinion polls say that the DUP will take this seat following the collapse of the Alliance vote. UKIP’s ideal surge in Northern Ireland will not be a huge one, with the party only getting just over 1% of the vote.

Predicted Winner – DUP Gain – Gavin Robinson

Belfast North: 2010 – DUP Hold – Nigel Dodds MP

Dodds has held this seat since 2001, and with major opinion polls keeping the DUP ahead, its likely he’ll hang on for another five years.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – Nigel Doods MP

Belfast South: 2010 – SDLP Hold – Alasdair McDonnell MP A huge majority is held here by SDLP. Its likely that they will hold this majority.

Predicted Winner – SDLP Hold – Alasdair McDonnell MP

SDLP's Alasdair Mcdonnell

SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell

Belfast West: 2011BE – Sinn Fein Hold – Paul Maskey

A strong Sinn Fein hold for many years. Its likely to stay that way this election.

Predicted Winner – Sinn Fein Hold – Paul Maskey MP

Down North: 2010 – Independent Hold – Lady Sylvia Hermon MP

Lady Hermon became independent in 2010, and successfully held her seat. Given the huge majority she held, its likely she’ll hold it for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Independent Hold – Lady Sylvia Hermon MP

Lady Sylvia Hermon canvassing

Lady Sylvia Hermon canvassing for her Northern Ireland seat.

Down South: 2010 – SDLP Hold – Margaret Ritchie MP

The SDLP hold a huge majority here, even though Sinn Fein are gaining traction. I could see them hold the seat, but with a decreased majority. Predicted Winner – SDLP Hold – Margaret Ritchie MP

Fermanagh & South Tyrone: 2010 – Sinn Fein Hold – Michelle Gildernew MP

The independent candidate in the last election, Rodney Connor, brought the race extremely close with only a 4 vote margin between Connor & Sinn Fein. With Connor not in this ballot, Sinn Fein will likely walk this ballot.

Predicted Winner – Sinn Fein Hold – Michelle Gildernew MP

Foyle: 2010 – SDLP Hold – Mark Durkan MP

Another tight seat between SDLP and Sinn Fein. I reckon the SDLP will hang on to this slightly.

Predicted Winner – SDLP Hold – Mark Durkan MP

Lagan Valley: 2010 – DUP Hold – Jeffrey Donaldson MP

More candidates in this seat than the last time, the DUP will lose some votes, but ultimately hold the seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – Jeffrey Donaldson MP

Londonderry East: 2010 – DUP Hold – Gregory Campbell MP DUP hold a 6,000 majority in this seat and won’t go away. Sinn Fein are not expecting a boost in this area any time soon.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – Gregory Campbell MP

Conor Murphy of Sinn Fein.

Conor Murphy of Sinn Fein.

Newry & Armagh: 2010 – Sinn Fein Hold – Conor Murphy MP

Murphy steps down from this seat to make way for new blood. Also, The DUP will sit this seat out for once, leaving it between SF & SDLP. I think Sinn Fein will hold.

Predicted Winner – Sinn Fein Hold – Mickey Brady

Strangford: 2010 – DUP Hold – Jim Shannon MP

Another seat the DUP can hold quite comfortable. Unlikely to see it disappear.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – Jim Shannon MP

Tyrone West: 2010 – Sinn Fein Hold – Pat Doherty MP

A strong seat for Sinn Fein that will not go away.

Predicted Winner – Sinn Fein Hold – Pat Doherty MP

Ulster Mid: 2013BE – Sinn Fein Hold – Francie Malloy MP

A by-election saw a new Sinn Fein MP win comfortably. A repeat is likely to occur in this election.

Predicted Winner – Sinn Fein Hold – Francie Malloy MP

Upper Bann: 2010 – DUP Hold – David Simpson MP

A close race five years ago between the DUP, Sinn Fein, & UCU-NF. Perhaps a repeat? If so, the DUP will come on top again.

Predicted Winner – DUP Hold – David Simpson M.P.

Northern Ireland seat prediction total: DUP – 9 seats / Sinn Fein – 5 seats / SDLP – 3 seats / Independent – 1 seat.

Seats so far from the Predict the Seats instalments total:

Labour – 83 Seats

Conservatives – 77 Seats

DUP – 9 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 6 Seats

Sinn Fein – 5 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

SDLP – 3 Seats

UKIP – 1 Seat

Independent – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

There is a choice!

Vote

New Labour is no more! The Greens are getting more media attention, and we all know about the inexplicable rise of UKIP. The party that gifts us gaffes every other day, but whose popularity hasn’t suffered in any meaningful way (yet).  The Conservatives seem to be flitting from one attack strategy to another, in order to try and breathe life into their hopes to cement an unlikely majority in two weeks.  The SNP have decided they are taking Scotland, even if it is in the Union.

The economic argument is one of the biggest differences between the parties as the IFS has identified. While it is true to say that the parties all want to decrease borrowing, they want to decrease borrowing at different rates, and will have different strategies for dealing with such a task. While Labour wants to raise taxes, for instance raising the 50p tax rate, creating a mansion tax and creating a tobacco levy. These taxes would contribute towards helping to fund extra public spending which Labour plan. The Conservatives however, according to the IFS, are giving away money in tax cuts while cutting the deficit much more quickly, leaving debt as a share of national income at only 72% in 2019-2020, compared to the current 80% rate.  The Conservatives and Labour do offer a real difference, while they both want to protect school funding, the NHS, and foreign aid; they offer a substantially different ideological way of cutting the deficit.  It is an ideological battle not seen since 1992.

Conservative campaign

The Conservatives and Labour are not the only parties which can or will make a difference in the election. The SNP are currently in danger of making Scotland a one party state, marking out territory which was Labour’s heartland. Many people thought that Labour could never be kicked out of Scotland, but they’re not just being kicked out, but chased by the tartan army wielding pitchforks. If Lord Ashcroft’s polling is correct even, Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander’s seats are in serious danger. Yellow peril is at the door for all the parties in the Westminster.

The parallel of the SNP and Labour agreement is a Conservative, Lib Dem, UKIP, and DUP potential pact. UKIP is becoming the second party of the north for many people, and while many may not like them, they are offering an almost fresh voice in British politics. While much of it is recycled, the party still has a libertarian edge which sometimes comes out. Scenes, such as a Parliamentary candidate also being a porn star, are rare in politics and are to be welcomed, given the fact that UKIP simply said the porn star candidate’s work shouldn’t dictate whether he can or cannot stand for Parliament.

Has Natalie Bennett been a car-crash?

The Greens are a party which are present, but are not going to have an impact in Parliament. Natalie Bennett has been a car crash from day one. The IFS have argued that the Greens claims that they will suddenly manage to create billions from clamping down on tax avoidance are, to say the least, ‘fanciful’..  Rather than Ms Bennett actively debating the IFS, she just dismissed them outright, despite having no professional background in economics herself.  The Greens are mopping up much of the student vote, however this will not sustain them for long, and soon they will need to be more credible if they want to gain ground in electoral contests.

Whatever people say about this election, there is a choice! New Labour is gone, the Conservatives are as they always have been, and we now see the emergence of new parties with something different to say. The election results will be turbulent, but for the first time in many decades, people will have a genuine choice in what kind of country they want. I hope people make use of it.

By Sam Mace, Senior Writer for Daily Political View.

Are we going Left or Right?

General election 2015

With two weeks to go until Britain decides what the next Westminster Parliament looks like, we are still waiting patiently for the polls to move one way or the other.  For months the two main parties have been stuck in gridlock, both eagerly expecting a late surge in the final days that may or may not come.

Thus far, it is fair to say that the Conservatives have run a mediocre campaign by their standards.  Some of this has been down to arrogance and an expectation that they are now ready for the majority that they were denied five years ago.  After all, the alternative has hardly captured the imaginations of the electorate.  They have also rested on the same arguments that they feel will slowly hammer home as we approach polling day; so much so, that large parts of Britain can probably reel off Tory one-liners from the manifesto in their sleep.  It’s boring but the Tories obviously feel that it is a solid strategy to keep plugging away at their economic record and the fears around a Labour/SNP coalition.

The problem for me is that this isn’t likely to provide a late spark in Cameron’s, especially if he wants to win a majority.  On the Sunday Politics this week, he calmly suggested that they only needed 23 seats for a majority.  Yet, he must know that it is far from this easy, and anyway; talk about trying to just scrape over the line!  My bet is that the Tories have resigned themselves to not surging ahead in the polls at this stage.  Their hope is that the same messages will retain their core vote, fend off UKIP and possibly win them the odd Lab/Con marginal.  They can then form another coalition with any remaining Lib Dems that they haven’t wiped out themselves.  This strategy will probably work, but it’s not really a positive attempt to win an election.

David Cameron joined Boris Johnson on the campaign trail

Rallying the troops – David Cameron joined Boris Johnson on the campaign trail

In contrast, any significant movement in the polls seem more likely to happen for Labour.  Miliband’s approval ratings have improved in the last few weeks after a string of good performances in the leader debates.  The party also seem to be engaging with voters over important issues such as the NHS and the EU, while offering a positive alternative to austerity.  It’s by no means a strong campaign, but certainly not the struggle that many expected.  The big test for Labour remains in Scotland, and it is the saving grace for the Tories at the moment.  If there is to be a swing to the left before May 7th, Miliband needs it to happen north of the border more than anywhere else.

It is not out of the question either.  While the signs for the SNP are very good, Sturgeon knows better than to relax in the midst of a General Election.  Without fail, Labour has always performed well in Scotland despite previous reasons that should have told us otherwise.  In particular, while the SNP went from strength to strength between 2007 and 2011 in the Scottish Parliamentary Elections, Labour still bludgeoned them in the 2010 General Election.

nicola sturgeon in Holyrood

There are two important reasons to explain why this has always happened until now.  Firstly, voting Labour is the only realistic option for Scots to prevent a Tory Government.  They don’t have to worry about this in Holyrood but geographically Scots need to use Labour in General Elections as the SNP logically can’t do it.  Therefore, Scots associate Labour with Westminster more than Holyrood.  This could yet come into play in the next two weeks if the polls continue to show Labour 50 seats short of a majority and the SNP sitting on that number themselves.  This is why Sturgeon is pushing Miliband so much for a coalition arrangement during the campaign because she is aware of the potential loss otherwise, and why Miliband is keeping his hand to himself for now.

Secondly, Labour has strong and well-known MPs in Scotland, compared to their MSP counterparts.  This contrasts to the SNP, who have put their bigger names in Holyrood until now.  It will be interesting to see if Scots will indeed have the nerve to push out the household names in favour of some lesser known SNP candidates or if they stick to what they know with the polls proving to be so tight.

Therefore, if we are to see any changes, it will probably be for Labour.  The Tories have put up their stall for now and are content with where they are, even if it doesn’t seem like winning them a majority.  With UKIP fading of late, voters on the right have probably made their choice.  Whereas, the voters on the left still have a bigger decision to make as Labour continue to fight for their approval.  Do they stay where they are, or will they jump to Miliband to evict Cameron from number 10?

In true political fashion, I’m going to avoid that tough question and leave it there…

By Jon Adamson, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

Predicting The Seats: Wales

 

The Severn Bridge - we take a look at what the election day may bring in Wales

The Severn Bridge – we take a look at what the election day may bring in Wales

We move to Wales next which remains a strong Labour heartland. Labour hold the most seats in this country with 26, whilst the Conservatives lag far behind on 8. Both The Liberal Democrats & Plaid Cymru hold 3 seats equally. Will any of these seats change hands?

Aberavon: 2010 – Labour Hold – Hywel Francis MP

A high Labour majority over 10,000 could see them hold this seat strongly.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephen Kinnock (Neil Kinnock’s Son)

Aberconwy: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Guto Bebb MP

This is one of the seats that may reflect the national opinion when it comes to Labour & The Tories. The tories won this seat in the last election, but who is to guess if they can hold it or not. Looking at its previous seat, The Tories have held it far longer than Labour have. It’s a swing seat possibly, but I think the Tories will hold it.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Guto Bebb MP

Alyn & Deeside: 2010 – Labour Hold – Mark Tami MP

A close result the last time around, but given that it’s a strong Labour hold, I doubt it will shift anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Mark Tami MP

Arfon: 2010 – Plaid Cymru Gain – Hywel Williams MP

The seat’s previous incarnation has been a Plaid Cymru hold since the 70s. Its unlikely that Labour could take this seat despite the small margin.

Predicted Winner – Plaid Cymru Gold – Hywel Williams MP

Hywel Williams MP - Plaid Crymu

Hywel Williams MP – Plaid Cymru

Blaenau Gwent: 2010 – Labour Gain – Nick Smith MP

Following a regain from a loss in the 2006 by election, its unlikely Labour faces any real competition this time around.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nick Smith MP

Brecon & Radnorshire: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Roger Williams MP

Despite a drop of support across the country, Opinion polls say that this will be one of the seats the Lib Dems will likely hold.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Roger Williams MP

Bridgend: 2010 – Labour Hold – Madeleine Moon MP

A labour hold since 1987, its unlikely to change hands anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Madeleine Moon MP

Caerphilly: 2010 – Labour Hold – Wayne David MP

A Labour hold literally since the seat’s inception in 1918. No chance whatsoever for a change.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Wayne David MP

Cardiff Central: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Jenny Willott MP

Opinion polls put this seat back into Labour hands, as the Lib Dems lost half their support come this election.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Jo Stevens

Cardiff North: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Jonathan Evans

A seat which has had its fair share of switches from time to time. Opinion polls do say that Labour will take this seat back.

Predicted Winner – Labour Gain – Mari Williams

Cardiff South & Penarth: 2012BE – Labour Hold – Stephen Doughty MP

A hold since 1983 and a recent by election victory in this seat in 2012, its likely that Labour won’t lose this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Stephen Doughty MP

Cardiff West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Kevin Brennan MP

Another strong Labour showing is likely to happen here. Unlikely to be any shocks.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Kevin Brennan MP (Shadow Minister For Schools)

Labour MP Kevin Brennan

Labour MP Kevin Brennan

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: 2010 – Plaid Cymru Hold – Jonathan Edwards

Plaid hold a good majority in this seat. Given that Labour have struggled to really break out in these seats, its likely this will stay a Plaid seat.

Predicted Winner – Plaid Cymru Hold – Jonathan Edwards M.P.

Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Simon Hart

A tight election the last time round which saw the Tories steal the seat away from Labour. The Tories, according to opinion polls, will keep the seat for another five years if polls are right.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Simon Hart MP

Ceredigion: 2010 – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mark Williams MP

A tough fight for the Liberal Democrats to fight, what with a declining vote. However, opinion polls say that they will hold this.

Predicted Winner – Liberal Democrat Hold – Mark Williams MP

Clwyd South: 2010 – Labour Hold – Susan Jones

A labour hold. Confident it won’t go anywhere.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Susan Jones MP

Clwyd West: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Jones MP

A good majority in this seat held by the Tories. Even if Labour have a boost in this area, I doubt the Tories would lose it.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Jones MP

Cynon Valley: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ann Clwyd MP

A huge majority held here by Labour. Unlikely to be overturned.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ann Clwyd MP

Delyn: 2010 – Labour Hold – David Hanson MP

It’s a tight seat here, with a slim majority for Labour. I reckon things will stay very much the same, with perhaps a tighter majority.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – David Hanson MP (Shadow Minister Of State, Home Office)

Dwyfor Meirionnydd: 2010 – Plaid Cymru Hold – Elfyn Llwyd MP

A very strong Plaid hold which is unlikely to disappear.

Predicted Winner – Plaid Cymru Hold – Liz Saville-Roberts

Gower: 2010 – Labour Hold – Martin Canton MP

A strong Labour seat since 1910. It will stay Labour for a lot longer.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Liz Evans

Chris Evans MP

Chris Evans MP

Islwyn: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Evans MP

Labour hold here a majority of 12,000 with a 49 percent voting share. The Tories only have a 14 percent share. Its easy to guess who walks away the victor.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Evans MP

Llanelli: 2010 – Labour Hold – Nia Griffith MP

I think Labour will build from 2010, in which it had over 4,000 majority. It has over a 12 percent voting share over the Tories and its likely to increase this time round.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nia Griffith MP

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: 2010 – Labour Hold – Dai Havard MP

Much like the other seats, I think Labour are comfortable enough to hold this seat for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Gerald Jones

Monmouth: 2010 – Conservative Hold – David Davis MP

I think he will hold this seat, and stay on for another five years. He is not to be confused with the other David Davis, who almost became Conservative leader in 2005.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – David Davis MP

David Davis MP

David Davis MP

Montgomeryshire: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Edward Glyn Davies

Taking this from the Lib Dems in the last election, Its likely that their vote will increase in this seat this time around, making their hold much more firm.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Edward Glyn Davies MP

Neath: 2010 – Labour Hold – Peter Hain M.P.

Hain steps down this time round to make round for what is likely a new Labour M.P. I doubt any other party would seize this party from Labour.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Christina Rees

Newport East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Jessica Morden MP

The Labour & Lib Dem votes were very close in the last election. But given that the Lib Dem vote is due to drop, Labour will hold this seat comfortably for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Jessica Morden MP

Newport West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Paul Flynn MP

Labour will likely beef up its majority in this seat following the last election as they hold a comfortable majority.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Paul Flynn MP

Ogmore: 2010 – Labour Hold – Huw Irranca Davies MP

A comfortable hold for Labour in this seat which likely won’t go away.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Huw Irranca Davies MP (Shadow Minister For Food & Farming)

Pontypridd: 2010 – Labour Hold – Owen Smith

With The Lib Dem vote tumbling down, this will be a much more comfortable majority for Labour this time round.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Owen Smith M.P. (Shadow Secretary Of State For Wales)

Preseli Pembrokeshire: 2010 – Conservative Hold – Stephen Crabb MP

The Tories have a good hold on this seat and have held it through many elections thus far. Its likely to stay Tory a third time round.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Stephen Crabb MP (Secretary Of State For Wales)

Rhondda: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Bryant MP

A very strong Labour hold here which won’t disintergrate anytime soon.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Bryant MP (Shadow Minister For The Arts)

Swansea East: 2010 – Labour Hold – Sian James MP

The Lib Dem drop will increase Labour’s vote by a huge amount.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Carolyn Harris

Swansea West: 2010 – Labour Hold – Geriant Davies

A tight result in the last election, but the Lib Dem drop will give Labour a stronger chance to keep this seat.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Geriant Davies MP

Torfaen: 2010 – Labour Hold – Paul Peter Murphy MP

Stray Lib Dem votes in this area could go to the Conservatives and potentially seize this seat from Labour. However, its unlikely to occur.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Nicklaus Thomas-Symonds

Vale Of Clwyd: 2010 – Labour Hold – Chris Ruane MP

Another tough seat for the two main parties to fight over. But seeing as Labour have held this seat since 97, its likely they’ll keep it for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Chris Ruane MP

Alun Carines MP

Alun Cairns MP

Vale Of Glamorgan: 2010 – Conservative Gain – Alun Cairns MP

A seat that has changed hands many times in its 32 year history. This time, it’ll head towards the Tories and stay with them for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Conservative Hold – Alun Cairns MP (Minister For Wales)

Wrexham: 2010 – Labour Hold – Ian Lucas MP

Apart from a brief flirtation with the Social Democratic party from 1981-1983, this has remained a Labour seat since 1935. Chances of it changing are slim.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Ian Lucas MP  (Shadow Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Business and Regulatory Reform) (Shadow Minister For The Middle East & Africa)

Ynys Mon: 2010 – Labour Hold – Albert Owen MP

A tight race could occur in this seat between Labour & Plaid Cymru. I believe Labour will hold it though for another five years.

Predicted Winner – Labour Hold – Albert Owen MP

Total Welsh Prediction:

Welsh Labour – 28 Seats

Welsh Conservatives – 7 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

Welsh Liberal Democrats – 2 Seats

Total Seats from the Predict The Seats instalments:

Labour – 83 Seats

Conservatives – 77 Seats

Liberal Democrats – 6 Seats

Plaid Cymru – 3 Seats

UKIP – 1 Seat

By Connor Macgregor, Junior Writer for Daily Political View.

The Challenger’s Debate

challengers debate

This is the debate of the challengers, this means that to see Nick Clegg or David Cameron attending would be an odd sight, since Cameron and Clegg are representatives of the former government. If they did attend they would be giving up a major advantage of the incumbency effect. Did they miss much by not attending this debate? My answer has to be no. While the attacks on the government were constant throughout the night, if Cameron had attended he would have lost his trump card, the respect of authority. The attacks on his record will be quickly forgotten amongst the debris of a left wing love affair that was on show. Brevity was not on show tonight, which made it rather tiresome, but for some it was the ideological orgy that has been missing thus far.

Natalie Bennett, the insufferable leader of the Green party who’s moral superiority irks so much of the country actually did rather well tonight. Even if she was guilty of skipping over the defence question with answers which she knew people wanted to hear. Rather than explaining how she wants to melt down the arms industry, legalize belonging to Al-Qaeda, and cutting the defence of the realm, she decided to be terse.  She made some convincing personal statements, which included the well aimed defence of migrants, and the view that people should vote on their principles hit home. This will not though increase the vote of the Green party, which are still looking at a solitary seat.  People want a voice in Parliament, and the Greens cannot deliver that, no matter how much Bennett tried to use Caroline Lucas as a political pin-up.

Nicola Sturgeon was the one who really came out well tonight. She was in full attack mode, and focused her wrath on Miliband and Farage. Miliband throughout the night defended his positions in trench like warfare, but got overwhelmed towards the end when Sturgeon nailed him to the cross of what will happen come may the 8th, and what Miliband is prepared to do to ensure Cameron was kept out. More and more people in England seem to be frustrated they cannot vote for the SNP, and the appetite in Scotland for them will not diminish with this performance.

challengers

Ed Miliband held his own during the duration of the debate.  He tackled the trio of women who didn’t disagree on a single issue all night quite effectively, and punched in enough attacks on Cameron and Farage to impress those who were watching.  His remarks that only he and his party can stop Cameron was quickly halted in its proverbial tracks by none other than Nicola Sturgeon.  Sturgeon at one point had him in a verbal headlock and it ended with a shakedown. However, Miliband got in the sound bite of the night. Challenging Cameron to a one-on-one debate will have given Lynton Crosby something to think about tonight. Miliband is showing  greater pedigree as a leader as time goes on, he is more confident, assured and decisive. He is even looking prime ministerial.

Nigel Farage fresh off the back of a 1 million pound donation from Richard Desmond was cock sure and gleefully on the stage soaking up the act of being the only ‘right wing’ leader. He tried to paint himself as the under-dog throughout the night, attacking the BBC, the audience and going after all the leaders. He will have appealed to his base and that is all he needed tonight. He offered an alternative to what was on offer, no matter how odious that alternative is it offers some voters a chance to have their voice heard. UKIP will take seats, most likely more than the Greens and that is the result Farage is after.

You may have noticed I have not reviewed Leanne Wood’s rather tepid performance. She has often been terse and struggled on defence, at one point asking Ed if he’d use nuclear weapons on ISIS. Her lack of understanding between conventional force and non-conventional force was only one moment in a 90 minute performance. However, it wasn’t just that, she failed to sufficiently outline the argument that the Welsh state does not have enough money. This is the reason why Leanne Wood’s party is sitting 4th in Wales.  Overall the debate will not change things. Miliband was probably the winner in the sense that he had a lot to lose and will have come out stronger than before. He looks more like a future Prime Minister, than an academic with no grasp on reality.  The other leaders will have simply appealed to their base, especially Nigel Farage. Natalie Bennett really tried to appeal to outsiders with her almost desperate appeal for people to vote with their hearts rather than their heads. Unfortunately for her, this call will go unheeded as the race for Downing Street enters the homestretch.

By Sam Mace, Senior Writer for Daily Political View.

Twitter: (@thoughtgenerate)